中國聯塑(02128.HK)：將繼續獲估值重估，維持“增持”評級，目標價9.60港元
機構：銀河證券
評級：增持
目標價：9.60港元
■行業消息顯示，華南的建築活動在2019下半年明顯加快，這對中國聯塑而言屬於正面信號。
■該股將在11月下旬獲納入MSCI中國指數，意味着更多投資者將把股份放進觀察名單。
■鑑於公司財務狀況良好，相信有提高派息率的空間，這是為另一潛在利好因素。
■我們維持股份的盈利預測和「增持」評級。在考慮到股份獲納入MSCI和其盈利增長前景後，我們將股份目標價從8.55港元上調至9.60港元（9倍20財年市盈率）。
華南地區建築活動加快中國聯塑可望受益
在2019上半年，由於華南天氣欠佳影響了當地建築活動，華南的大型建材公司（如華潤水泥（1313.HK）和中國聯塑）錄得較弱的收入增長。然而，據華潤水泥管理層指出，華潤水泥19財年三季度收入同比增長3.1％，較19財年上半年的6％同比降幅明顯改善，這是由於天氣好轉導致建築活動加快。我們相信，超過一半收入來自華南的中國聯塑在下半年也將受益於這趨勢。預計公司19財年下半年的盈利風險較低。公司19財年上半年收入同比增長6.6％，我們預計下半年的增長將回升至8.7％。
獲納入MSCI中國指數是為利好因素
MSC在上週季檢後宣佈，將在11月26日收盤後將中國聯塑納入MSCI中國指數。現時股份的三個月日均成交額為620萬美元，相信其流動性有改善的空間，因為預計在納入MSCI中國指數後將有更多投資者將股份放到觀察名單上。
有機會增加派息率
2018年，中國聯塑由於財務狀況較好，期內將派息率由約20％升至31.5％。我們預計，公司的淨負債權益比在2019年底將降至約20％，因此或進一步提高派息率。目前，我們的財務模型仍假設派息率約30％，如果提高到35-40％，其20財年股息率或達到4.7-5.3％。在全球利率下行的大趨勢中，這股息率仍屬於吸引。
重申增持評級，新目標價為9.60港元我們的盈利預測維持不變，但目標價從8.55港元（8倍20財年市盈率）上調至9.60港元（9倍20財年市盈率）。考慮到19/20財年18.1％/9.7％的每股盈利增長，我們認為9倍市盈率是為合理。此外，獲納入MSCI應有助刺激股份交投量，因此股份值得擁有估值溢價。
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