旭輝控股集團(0884.HK ) ：銷售延續高增速，新發票據利率下行，維持“買入”評級
機構：長江證券
評級：買入
報告要點
事件描述
公司2019年10月單月實現合同銷售額190.3億元，同比增加76.20%，銷售面積120.57萬平，同比增加79.61%。前10月公司累計實現銷售額1557.8億元，同比增加32.17%，銷售面積922.77萬平，同比增加24.38%。
?事件評論
銷售持續維持高增速，公司盈利有保證。公司銷售持續維持高增速，2019年10月單月實現合同銷售額190.3億元，同比增幅達到76.20%；銷售面積120.57萬平，同比增加79.61%；銷售均價15800元/平方米，同比微降1.86%。前10月公司累計實現銷售額1557.8億元，同比增加32.17%；銷售面積922.77萬平，同比增加24.38%；銷售均價16900元/平方米，同比提升1000元/平方米（同增6.29%）。公司在銷售維持高增速背景下均價仍提升1000元/平方米，充分體現了公司聚焦一二線戰略優越性與產品力方面的競爭優勢，公司盈利存較好支撐。
新發優先票據票面利率有所下行，公司流動性充裕。公司新發行累計5億美元5年期優先票據，票面利率6.45%，較7月新發的3億美元5年期優先票據下降10BP。票面利率下行一方面或與部分經濟體重啟降息降準有關，另一方面也反映了海外資本市場對公司的認可。截至2019中公司現金存量同比增長22%至543億元，現金短債比為3.3倍，淨負債率69.5%（計入永續資本工具為81.7%），債務風險可控；上半年加權融資成本僅5.9%，處於行業領先水平；上半年銷售回款率超過95%，疊加近月高銷售增速延續，公司流動性充裕。
上半年拿地審慎，堅持精耕一二線。拿地方面，2019上半年公司收購土地規劃總建面770萬平，同比下降11.49%，總地價372.78億元，同比下降29.67%，平均土地收購成本4848元/平方米，同比下降20.52%。2019上半年地銷比42.15%，同比下降38.13pct，顯示公司拿地審慎。公司堅持精耕一二線，新增土儲一二線城市佔比超過80%。截至2019年中公司在手土儲總建面4680萬方，權益建面2340萬方，充裕土儲為公司長久盈利奠基。
投資建議：銷售維持高增速，流動性持續優化，公司配置價值凸顯。公司銷售維持較高增速，銷售回款率行業領先；發債利率下行，融資成本行業偏低，流動性仍有保證；豐富土儲將有效保障後續業績增長持續性。預計公司2019-2021年核心淨利潤同比增速24.8%、25.1%、21.5%，核心EPS為0.88、1.10、1.33元（最新股本），對應當前股價PE為5.87、4.69、3.86倍，維持“買入”評級。
風險提示：1.流動性環境或存不確定性；2.公司項目結算進度存一定不確定性。
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