舜宇光學科技(02382.HK):發展符合預期,對未來看法正面
機構:中泰證券
我們近日參加了舜宇光學科技的反向路演,管理層對投資者關心的問題作出瞭解答。總體而言,我們看到管理層對公司下半年開始至今的業務發展較為滿意,認為與計劃相符,對未來市場發展看法正面。反向路演摘要如下:
維持全年出貨量指引不變
手機鏡頭全年出貨量增速指引為30%,1-9月同比增長38%,發展勢頭不錯,預期可達目標;手機攝像模組全年增速指引為20-25%,1-9月同比增長23%,在指引範圍內,產品結構進一步改善;車載鏡頭全年增速指引為25%,1-9月增長26.5%,符合指引。
手機攝像模組業務健康發展,毛利率繼續提升
9月份出貨量為歷史的第二高,環比下降是由於8月為客户新機備貨,出貨量基數高。公司出貨按照客户時間表,業務發展符合計劃,沒有看到砍訂單、良率不好、丟單等情況。導致上半年攝像模組毛利率較低的主要問題已解決,毛利率已於5、6月開始回升,中期來看模組行業毛利率8-10%比較合理,若高端產品的滲透率高,有機會超雙位數。
車載鏡頭穩步增長,未來發展空間大
車載鏡頭需拿到行業認證及客户認證,行業准入門檻高,公司去年全球市佔率27%,在環視等高端產品的全球市佔率超50%。車載鏡頭主要增長動力為每輛汽車搭載鏡頭數量會增加,這主要受法規、ADAS、自動駕駛發展推動,行業整體年增速在15-20%較為合理。公司車載鏡頭業務發展策略為在不犧牲產品價格及毛利率的情況下提升市佔率,預期增速略高於行業。車載鏡頭ASP穩定,毛利率不低於40%。
預期明年將繼續擴產
手機方面,未來1-2年多攝趨勢還在,每個攝像頭有明顯的升級趨勢,包括3D、高像素、廣角、小型化、超薄等;車載方面,預期每年都會增長。鑑於目前市場情況,預期明年手機鏡頭、攝像模組及車載鏡頭都會跟隨市場增長而擴產。

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