長城汽車(2333.HK)10月銷量數據點評：10月銷量增長繼續跑贏行業，維持“增持”評級
機構：西部證券
評級：增持
● 核心結論
事件：公司發佈2019年10月產銷快報，全月銷售汽車115,015輛，同比增長 4.48%；1~10月累計銷售汽車839,128輛，同比增長6.66%。
10月銷量同比增速繼續跑贏行業。公司10月銷售汽車115,015輛，同比增長 4.48%。10月，乘用車市場整體日均批發銷量5.46萬輛，同比下降6%，長 城汽車跑贏行業超過10pct。長城汽車銷量同比增速繼續大幅跑贏行業。
主流車型銷量環比高增長，皮卡車型炮銷量首月超5000輛。10月哈弗H6銷 售40,623輛，同比下降1.2%，環比增長28.1%，環比仍然保持高增速。哈 弗F7銷售15,017輛，環比增長22.0%，月銷量超過1.5萬輛。M6銷售15,211 輛，同比增長23.9%，環比微增0.7%，M6自7月推出2019款車型後，銷量 持續攀升，目前月銷基本穩定在2018年底的歷史高點。Wey VV6銷售5,275 輛，同比增長31.3%，環比增長3.6%，月銷量回到5,000輛以上。歐拉R1 銷量1,618輛，環比下降5.4%，歐拉iQ銷量156輛，環比下降6.6%，新能源 汽車銷量環比下降，因補貼政策年底退坡尚未有消息，年底搶裝效應或不強。 新上市皮卡車型炮銷售5,020輛，上市首月銷量超5000輛。
受益集中度提升、新車型密集發佈，公司銷量有望持續跑贏行業。2019年三 季度以來公司密集推出旗下多款車型的年度改款，及全新車型VV7 GT，發 布皮卡炮品牌，2019年後續將繼續推出年度款新車。2020年，公司還將推 出全新平台的2款全新SUV、炮越野版、歐拉全新EV。公司密集推出新車型 帶來銷量的穩步提升，同時公司作為SUV龍頭企業，受益於當前行業產能出 清過程中的集中度提升，銷量有望繼續跑贏行業。我們維持公司2019-2021 年預測EPS為0.48/0.61/0.66元，按11月7日H股股價6.60港元，對應H股 12.3/9.7/9.0倍PE，維持“增持”評級；按11月7日A股股價9.35元，對應 A股19.4/15.3/14.3倍PE。
風險提示：新產品銷售不及預期；價格戰加劇。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
