離岸、在岸人民幣兑美元雙雙升破7
格隆匯11月5日丨人民幣繼續升值,離岸幣兑美元升破7至6.9937,為今年8月5日以來首次,且距離9月初的7.1962已升值2.82%;在岸人民幣兑美元升破7至6.9948,為今年8月一日以來首日,且距離9月初的7.1785已升值2.56%。平安證券分析認為,無論從市場情緒還是基本面來看,人民幣兑美元匯率仍具有小幅升值基礎,短期人民幣匯率大概率將圍繞7上下波動。其一,迫於美國經濟下行和大選的壓力,特朗普仍有動力在短期內與中國簽署第一階段協議,這會在市場情緒上提振人民幣匯率;其二,美元指數在11-12月份大概率維持温和回落,震盪中樞逐漸至96-97,這有助於人民幣匯率升值;其三,當前中美10年期國債利差處於高位,這會對人民幣匯率形成一定的支撐。
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