廣汽集團( 2238.HK ) 三季報點評：業績低於預期，看好日系品牌前景，目標價9.6港元，維持“買入”評級
機構：西部證券
評級：買入
目標價：9.6港元
核心結論
3季度業績低於預期，傳祺仍在經營低點，廣本拖累投資收益增速。3季度公司實現營業收入146.8億元，同比下降10.0%，淨利潤14.5億元，同比下降46.2%。公司3季度毛利率同比下滑12.8個百分點至6.1%，低於我們預期，原因包括：1）產銷量下滑、國六車型切換促銷費用增加、4S店改造和新能源車型爬坡合計影響毛利率12.3pct；2）2H18起GS4官降；3）宜昌和杭州新工廠的折舊費用增加。合資方面，3季度公司實現投資收益25.5億元，同比持平，其中廣本受飛度換代、冠道國六車供給不足影響，3季度銷量同比下滑1.6%，表現弱於上半年，廣菲克3季度銷量下滑38.6%，預計虧損進一步擴大。
去庫存見成效，關注4季度新產品上市。1-9月份，傳祺品牌廠家和渠道庫存減少4.8萬台，並且進入4季度終端折扣趨於穩定，經銷商利潤有邊際改善。往前看，基於全新GPMA平台打造的GS4換代將於11月上市，公司月銷量目標在1.5萬台，中改款GS8也將於近期上市。我們預計4季度隨着行業銷售回暖，新品將帶動自主品牌毛利率回升。
看好日系新品和擴產週期。我們認為以日系車為代表的高品質中檔車將跑贏行業，獲取市場份額。2019年底，廣豐和廣本將引入RAV4、CR-V姐妹車型威蘭達和皓影，我們預期兩款新車貢獻2020/2021年24萬台/年的銷量，成為新的利潤增長點。此外，廣豐擴產計劃正在進行中，年底廣豐、廣本達到72、60萬的產能，銷量將得到釋放。
目標價9.6港元，維持“買入”評級。我們下調2019/2020/2021年淨利潤預測至82.2/102.5/122.0億元，反映國六車型切換成本高於預期、新工廠投產和新能源產品上市初期對利潤率的影響，目標價調低至9.6港元，基於8.5倍2020年預期市盈率。
風險提示：車市價格戰加劇、新品銷售不及預期、產品召回風險。
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