澳優(1717.HK)：優質團隊掌舵，嫁接全球資源，成長加速
機構：天風證券
行業增速放緩，消費高端化、渠道變革、政策扶持共同促進行業集中度提升。受制新生兒減少，嬰配粉市場增速放緩。出生率持續下滑，0-3歲嬰幼兒人數規模縮減，但0-3歲嬰幼兒人均消費奶粉量或有提升。消費升級給奶粉高端市場帶來機遇，羊奶粉、有機奶粉、特配粉三足鼎立形成高端市場。奶粉銷售渠道以線下為主，母嬰實體店表現強勢，特別是在三四線市場。奶粉註冊制清空雜牌市場份額，同時政策支持國產奶粉自給水平提升至60%以上。
團隊軟實力、國際化能力、產品機制差異化、深度擁抱渠道是澳優的四大核心競爭優勢。
1.人和：股權、管理層、激勵機制全方面到位。澳優股權三權鼎立，治理完善；中信農業產業基金、晟德大藥廠與管理層相輔相成，有助業務發展。顏衞彬董事長業績優秀，是公司靈魂人物，帶領澳優從困難中崛起。各個事業部實行合夥制優勢明顯，激勵到位激發團隊積極性。
2.國際資源嫁接中國市場，多年積累佔位，先發優勢明顯。澳優自11年開始跨境併購整合，打好基礎自控上游，實現全產業鏈佈局。澳優在荷蘭、新西蘭、澳洲三大黃金奶源帶佈局奶源，共十家工廠，全面投產後產能可超15萬噸。
3.差異化產品極致卡位，核心單品驅動業績增長。佳貝艾特羊奶粉，有機奶粉和海普諾凱1897等奶粉都憑藉各自優勢在消費者心中佔據獨特的地位，增速穩定較快。前瞻佈局的營養品業務，未來也十分廣闊。
4.專注母嬰渠道，會員精準營銷體系增加消費者粘性。澳優深度擁抱渠道，用相對較高的渠道利潤和賦能服務增強黏性，在這背後通過IT系統掌控數據，整體操盤，解決分散化渠道難以管理的問題。
增長點：公司中長期增長有優秀的企業軟實力保證，羊奶粉、有機奶粉、海普諾凱1897是中期路徑，營養品是長期保障。短期來看，羊奶粉保持穩健增長；牛奶粉和營養品增速下滑的短期因素解決後，恢復性加速增長；考慮增值税下調季度數不同和品牌投入節奏，下半年收入利潤有望加速。盈利預測：我們預計公司19-21年營業收入分別為70.0、93.0、121.0億元，同比增長30%、33%、30%，19-21年調整後淨利潤分別為9.2、12.8、16.6億元，同比增長58%、39%、30%，19-21年調整後EPS分別為0.58、0.80、1.04元，考慮當前1港幣兑0.9人民幣的匯率和公司市值，公司對應19-21年PE分別為17.4、12.5、9.7倍，給予公司20年23倍估值，目標價20.30港幣，給予買入評級。
風險提示：食品安全問題，下游需求下滑，行業競爭加劇，新業務推廣不及預期，貿易摩擦和匯率問題以及政策風險
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