長城汽車( 2333.HK ) ：三季報業績超預期，看好公司業績彈性，維持“增持”評級
機構：西部證券
評級：增持
核心結論
事件：公司發佈2019年三季報，2019年前三季度實現營業收入625.8億元，同比減少6.1%，實現歸母淨利潤29.2億元，同比減少25.7%。三季度單季實現營業收入212.0億元，同比增長18.0%，實現歸母淨利潤14.0億元，同比大幅增長506.8%。三季報業績超市場預期。
折扣收窄，產品結構優化，Q3毛利率18.5%，同比、環比提升3.5pct。公司業績大幅增長的主要來源為毛利率的提升和費用率的下降。毛利率同比增長主要原因有：增值税税率的調整、產品結構的優化；環比增長的主要原因有：促銷力度的降低、銷量環比的提升及其帶來的製造費用的下降。公司費用管控合理，銷售、管理和財務三項費用率合計5.7%，同比下降2.7pct。
受益集中度提升、新車型密集發佈，公司銷量持續跑贏行業。2019年三季度以來公司密集推出旗下多款車型的年度改款，及全新車型VV7GT，發佈皮卡炮品牌，2019年後續將繼續推出年度款新車。2020年，公司還將推出全新平台的2款全新SUV、炮越野版、歐拉全新EV。公司密集推出新車型帶來銷量的穩步提升，另外，公司作為SUV龍頭企業，受益於當前行業產能出清過程中的集中度提升，銷量有望繼續跑贏行業。
公司單車盈利處於歷史低位，未來向上彈性空間大。受行業整體不景氣影響，公司2018Q3單車淨利潤大幅下滑至1200元。公司通過產品結構的改善、降本增效和密集推出新車型等措施，2019Q3單車淨利潤已穩步提升至6100元。公司三季報業績超預期，中短期繼續看好公司的龍頭優勢和業績彈性，中長期國際化戰略將為公司帶來額外的市場空間，我們認為公司正處於新一輪上升期的起點，我們上調公司2019-2021年預測EPS至0.48/0.61/0.66元，按10月28日H股股價6.23港元，對應H股11.8/9.2/8.6倍PE，維持“增持”評級；按10月28日A股股價8.69元，對應A股18.3/14.3/13.3倍PE。
風險提示：新產品銷售不及預期；價格戰加劇
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