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崑崙能源(0135.HK)收購下游公司股權公告點評:收購下游標的,天然氣業務上下游一體化優勢凸顯
格隆匯 10-28 08:43

機構:光大證券

評級:增持

◆事件:10月16日,公司發佈公告,擬斥資16.55億元收購金鴻控股旗下17家公司股權。17家目標公司中,除泰安港外,其他主要從事燃氣供應及管理業務,泰安港主要從事輸氣管道、壓力站的建設和運營。

◆雙贏收購協同發展,天然氣中下游佈局逐漸完善

考慮到此次收購目標公司的主營業務及其所在市場,我們認為此次收購將有助於公司開拓衡陽、泰安、衡水等新的區域燃氣市場,在充分利用標的公司既有設備、資源、市場的基礎上,高效、低成本地建立自身規模優勢,擴銷增量、提質增效。同時,開發新市場與挖掘既有市場相結合的戰略將進一步發揮公司天然氣業務上下游一體化的優勢,並助力公司實現專注於天然氣終端場開發、提升終端零售市場規模的目標。

◆天然氣需求增勢不減,加速LNG一體化進程

隨着北方供暖季的來臨,加之國家對清潔能源的重視,天然氣需求量不斷增長。2019年上半年,我國天然氣表觀消費量為1493億立方米,同比+10.8%。崑崙能源作為中石油旗下以天然氣為主營業務的子公司,充分發揮自身資源優勢,上半年天然氣銷售板塊實現營收440.69億元,同比+7.84%,對總營收的貢獻高達80%以上。

隨着天然氣需求上行,為最大化產業鏈整體效益,公司逐漸加快推進LNG接收站、工廠及終端一體化進程。上半年公司LNG工廠加工量9.93億立方米,同比+60.68%;工廠生產負荷達43.9%,同比提高20.9個百分點。其中,唐山LNG外輸天然氣量於今年9月已突破100億立方米,預計2020年年底前,三期工程建成投產時,唐山LNG接收站將共計擁有8座16萬方的LNG儲罐,LNG儲備能力將翻倍,為華北地區天然氣的平穩供應提供調峯保障作用,有望繼續提升推動公司LNG業務產業鏈價值提升。

◆國家管網公司成立在即,燃氣銷售業務主體地位逐漸凸顯

鑑於國家管網公司有望於近期掛牌成立,三大油旗下的主要幹線管網以及多所LNG接收站將被納入,其中包括崑崙能源的陝京線管道和大連LNG接收站。前者的剝離勢必會對公司盈利能力造成較大影響,但也會促進公司專注於燃氣銷售業務,加快天然氣支線投建。

◆盈利預測及投資建議:暫不考慮本次收購事項,我們維持2019-2021年的盈利預測,預計公司2019-2021年的淨利潤62.04/74.63/83.85億元,對應EPS分別為0.72/0.86/0.97元,維持“增持”評級。

◆風險提示:國際油價波動風險、國家管道公司組建進度不及預期、天然氣市場風險、匯率風險。

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