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中金:內房股回調提供買入機會 首推融創(1918.HK)等六股
格隆匯 10-24 15:44
中金髮表報告指,華潤置地(1109.HK) 在10月22日宣佈擬以每股33.65港元配售2億股新股,較上日收盤價折讓7%。該行認為配股的稀釋效應有限,新增股數佔發行後總股本的2.8%,而該認購價格合理,考慮到公司股價從8月底部至今已累計上漲15%,年初至今漲幅為25%。中金表示,該次配售能夠在短期內幫助公司緩解年初至今積極拿地帶來的槓桿壓力,以更好滿足評級機構和國資委對其財務指標的要求,長期來看也可為公司可持續發展提供支撐。儘管該事件令市場產生負面情緒並一定程度上觸發板塊價格回調,仍重申當前是買入地產股的良好時機,未來3-6個月,行業首推融創(1918.HK) 、中海外(0688.HK) 、旭輝(0884.HK) 、金茂(0817.HK) 、時代中國(1233.HK) 和奧園(3883.HK)
該行認為,短期內房企進一步增發的可能性較低,主要考慮當前板塊估值和基金倉位仍較低,且本輪上漲累計幅度仍相對有限,但如果有高質量開發商進行配股,建議投資者積極參與,監於這些公司之後的可持續增長將帶來十分可觀的回報。中金重申當前為買入地產股的時機,並判斷實體市場後續將持續降温,但下行幅度可能較去年相對温和,而當前政策已進入觀察期,部分城市已經出現一些正向調整。如果基本面超預期下行,那麼政策調整的空間可能更大。此外,預計龍頭開發商將實現穩健的銷售增長(今年料為15%,明年整體料增長10-15%)和確定性盈利增長(2018至2020年複合增速超過20%),且估值仍然具有吸引力。
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