洽洽食品（002557.SZ）：收入逐季提速，業績超預期
作者：方振 董廣陽 楊傳忻
來源：華創食飲
主要觀點
事項
公司發佈三季報，19Q1-3公司實現收入32.19億元，同增10.64%，歸母淨利潤4.00億元，同增32.27%，扣非淨利潤3.17億元，同增39.02%；19Q3收入12.32億元，同增19.01%，歸母淨利潤1.80億元，同增37.79%，業績表現超預期。
評論
收入逐季明顯提速，黃袋系列增長亮眼。分產品來看，紅袋系列深耕低線渠道，借上市20週年契機加大營銷力度，促銷力度有所加強，同時與國潮品牌關聯迎合年輕的消費人羣，老品煥發新機，19Q3收入預計保持高個位數增長；藍袋系列同增約30%，保持穩健增長；每日堅果小黃袋進入Q3旺季之後，動銷明顯提速，收入預計翻番增長，主要系：1）公司加大廣告推廣力度，更換全新包裝，突出新鮮健康的核心保鮮技術，力圖形成差異化產品定位，增強消費者認知度，提升滲透率；2）中秋國慶旺季每日堅果禮盒動銷較優，團購渠道增長良好，力爭完成全年目標。
單季毛利率創新高，盈利能力繼續提升。2019Q3公司毛利率35.8%，同比提升1.2pcts，去年提價效應逐步減弱後，毛利率仍保持穩步提升，主要系：1）堅果自動化技術的提升。堅果包裝自動化水平提升，生產端效率穩步提升，加之堅果業務規模優勢逐步發揮，預計後續堅果品類毛利率有望提升2-3pcts。2）藍袋高增帶動瓜子業務結構優化。高毛利率藍袋產品在瓜子產品中佔比持續提升。費用率方面，隨着公司紅袋和小黃袋營銷力度的加強，19Q3銷售費用率15.9%，同比提升1.1pcts，財務費用同比減少1297萬元，主要系利息支出減少所致。此外，19Q1-3公司所得税率19.4%，同比下降1.4pcts。綜合來看，公司19Q3淨利率14.6%，在同期較高基數之下提升2.0pcts，前三季度淨利率12.5%，同比提升1.9pcts。
着眼單品發力營銷，全年目標穩步實現中。公司下半年積極加大營銷力度，全年主打藍袋和黃袋兩大單品營銷活動，紅袋繼續實施渠道深耕，低線市場份額再提升，全年有望實現20億銷售額目標；藍袋把握高端瓜子市場機遇，全年有望實現10億銷售額目標；每日堅果全面升級包裝，加強傳播效應，發力全國50多個城市，其中重點營銷15個核心城市，加大營銷廣告力度力爭實現線下第一、線上前三的目標。此外，截至9月底，公司合計回購股份123.25萬股，佔公司總股本的0.24%，後續回購完成後不超過50%將用於員工持股計劃，員工積極性有望增強，經營活力穩步提升。
盈利預測、估值及投資建議
上調目標價至32.5元，維持強推評級。下半年公司加大營銷力度，紅袋、藍袋系列增長趨勢良好，每日堅果小黃袋放量增長。考慮到明年春節提前因素，預計Q4仍可保持良好增速。瓜子產品結構升級和堅果自動化程度提升之下，預計盈利能力有望穩中有升。我們略上調公司2019-2021年EPS預測至1.11/1.30/1.50元（原預測值為1.02/1.20/1.37元），對應PE為26/22/19倍，給予明年25倍PE，上調目標價至32.5元，維持“強推”評級。
風險提示
新品推廣不及預期，食品安全風險。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
