貴陽銀行(601997.SH)：貸款高速增長，利潤釋放加快
作者：沈娟，蔣昭鵬
來源： 華泰金融研究全新平台
核心觀點
1
利潤增速升至16%，維持“增持”評級
貴陽銀行於8月26日發佈2019年半年報，上半年歸母淨利潤同比+16.4%，較1Q19上升4.0pct，業績超出我們預期。公司總資產、貸款均保持較快增長，ROE高位運行，利潤快速釋放。我們預測公司2019-2021年歸母淨利潤增速16.5%/ 15.6%/ 15.2%，EPS1.86/ 2.15/ 2.48元，目標價9.76~10.30元，維持“增持”評級。
2
規模保持較快增長，貸款增速接近40%
上半年營收同比增長12.0%，較Q1上升2.7pct；PPOP同比增長11.0%，較Q1上升4.1pct。年化ROA同比上升6bp，ROE則微降20bp。公司資產增速保持較快增長，在Q1末14.4%的基礎上繼續上升0.5pct至14.9%。貸款保持快速增長態勢，同比增速達38.6%；但Q2公司加大對投資類資產的配置力度，Q2新增投資類資產佔總資產新增的31%，而Q1為18%。
3
存款競爭致息差收斂，但仍保持較高水平
上半年淨息差為2.27%，較2018年下降6bp，這一淨息差仍在上市城商行中處於較高水平。息差收窄的壓力主要來源於存款端，計息負債成本率較2018年上升2bp，而存款成本率則較2018年上升41bp。一方面由於存款定期化，另一方面由於定期存款成本大幅攀升，對公定期、儲蓄定期存款平均成本率分別較2018年上升43bp、28bp。上半年貴州省存款增長乏力，6月末本外幣存款僅同比+2.3%，其中非金融企業存款同比下降9.2%，住户存款同比增長9.4%。貴陽銀行的存款增速較快（9.0%），區域內存款競爭加劇推升了成本。
4
資產質量受個別客户擾動，二級資本得到補充
6月末不良貸款率、關注類貸款佔比分別為1.50%、3.08%，較Q1末上升4bp、40bp，撥備覆蓋率較Q1末下降15pct至261%。資產質量邊際變化主要原因是個別大客户貸款確認為不良貸款。7月24日公司公告鎮遠鏢局及相關自然人違約訴訟案的細節，涉案貸款本金合計3.5億元，該貸款分類為不良貸款後可提升不良率18bp。若不考慮該部分不良貸款，則貴陽銀行不良率將下降。不良貸款偏離度較2018年末下降10pct至71%，不良貸款確認標準趨嚴。資本充足率、核心一級資本充足率分別較Q1末+91bp、-25bp至13.15%、8.84%，主要得益於45億元二級資本債的發行。
5
關注西部領先銀行機會，目標價9.76~10.30元
公司作為貴州省最大的城商行（省內僅2家城商行），有望享受新一輪西部大開發、精準扶貧帶來信貸需求紅利。我們預測2019至2021年歸母淨利潤增速為16.5%/15.6%/15.2%（前次12.9%/12.1%/-），EPS為1.86/2.15/2.48元（前次1.80/2.02/-元），2019年BVPS10.85元，對應PB0.75倍，可比城商行Wind一致預測PB為0.87倍，公司利潤釋放加速，ROE高位運行，應享受估值溢價，我們給予2019年目標PB 0.9~0.95倍，目標價調整至9.76~10.30元。
風險提示：經濟下行超預期，資產質量惡化超預期。
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