安踏體育(02020.HK)：最佳賽道的最強α，安踏Q3零售增長如期強勁，維持“買入”評級
機構：東吳證券
評級：買入
投資要點
事件：公司公佈Q3零售流水，其中安踏品牌10%-20%中段增長，FILA品牌50%-55%增長，其他品牌30%-35%增長。
安踏品牌：Q3零售流水增長較Q2提速，電商增長仍是亮點，9月受備貨節奏影響渠道庫存略有上行。19Q3安踏品牌流水中雙位數增長，較Q2有所提速，其中大貨低雙位數增長、兒童增長25%，電商增長30%-35%，電商增速較19H1上行。但由於9月秋冬裝備貨已經開始但天氣轉冷速度略慢，Q3零售折扣率略有上升（從去年同期7.4折轉為19Q3的7.2折），渠道庫存週期也略有延長（庫銷比由去年同期的4+上行至接近5），但總體來看運營質量比較穩定。
FILA。品牌：高基數下維持高速增長，零售折扣率及週轉穩定。FILA19Q3整體增長50%-55%，考慮18Q3/Q4增速高達90%/85%，高基數下仍然維持了高增速水準。分品牌來看，大貨/兒童/FUSION/電商增速分別達到40%/70%+/200%/80%+，兒童和電商顯現增長活力。同時，19Q3FILA品牌整體零售折扣率保持在8.0折（大貨折扣率持平、FUSION起量後折扣率略有下行屬正常情況），庫銷比也與前期持平在5-6之間，展現出高質量的增長。
其他品牌：DESCENTE帶動整體增長加速。DESCENTE品牌增長提速，全年零售流水有望衝擊10億人民幣，快速增長帶動19Q3除安踏及FILA外的品牌零售額增長30%-35%，而KOLON/KINGKOW/Sprandi品牌仍在貨品調整中，增速與前期類似，較為平緩。
盈利預測與投資評級：
從12年領先全行業完成零售改革，到FILA的逆勢高增成為集團新增長極，再到啟動國際化收購AMERSPORTS，安踏作為體育行業龍頭展現出的前瞻性及行動力有目共睹。我們長期看好運動服飾賽道，同時也看好公司作為行業龍頭全方位領先的能力。
公司19半年報表現靚麗，Q3流水錶現亦符合公司規劃，我們預計19H2安踏品牌增速快於H1，同時FILA也有望維持50%收入增長，帶動19/20/21年歸母淨利同增39%/26%/21%至57.0/71.8/86.9億元，對應PE32/26/21X，堅定維持“買入”評級。
風險提示：零售遇冷導致同店增長不及預期，展店不及預期，AMERSPORTS收購進展不及預期
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