植耀輝: 中美貿談變數仍高 新股急升暴跌不宜進取
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱，港股近期表現不俗，原因當然是與中美貿易談判傳來好消息有關。但所謂的好消息只是中方願意向美方「加碼」，每年購買400億至500億美元美國農產品，而換取美國不再額外再加徵關稅而已，但已開徵之關稅，以及原訂於12月15日加微15%之1,650億美元中國貨品計劃則未見取消，所以相關協議對美方來說其實是較為正面。
當然，根據過去經驗，能否達成共識仍存在十分且相當複雜的變數，正如筆者經常強調，在核心問題例如知識產權及技術轉移等領域上，雙方分歧仍十分之大，所以再次「鬧翻」的機會其實十分之高。投資者經過多次教訓後，也實在不宜抱太大憧憬矣!
繼續跟大家談談對個別板塊的看法。根據過去經驗，每當市況不濟，新股通常會有相當炒作，特別是個別「細細粒容易食」之股份。而近期其中一隻最炙手可熱之新股，肯定是從事軟件業務之魯大師(03601.HK)。魯大師收入來源主要來自以下幾方面：(1)線上流量變現，包括線上廣告服務以及線上遊戲業務；(2)電子設備銷售以及(3)智能配件銷售。今年首四個月線上流量變現便佔收入比例為74.1%。
所謂線上流量變現，就是線上廣告服務，收入模式則主要包括(1)將用戶瀏覽器主頁導向指定網頁；(2)提供彈出式迷你頁彈窗服務；以及(3)於產品廣告位向客戶提供條幅廣告。事實上，魯大師本身供下載之軟件屬免費，但當用戶安裝軟件時亦會捆綁安裝360流覽器，而360流覽器廣告的點擊也會使魯大師獲得收入分成，這就是魯大師其中一個收入模式。除PC外，魯大師亦有提供手機版軟件，收入模式亦大致與PC相似。
不過，筆者對此種商業模式的延續性相當有保留，而最大問題在於軟件與用戶間之黏性不高，行業競爭亦相當激烈，同時公司大部分收入主要來自360集團及嵩恆網絡，存在客戶集中風險。
最後亦可談談股價表現。股價急升如此其實有點令筆者意外，撇除業務前景不說，魯大師於2018年9月及2019年3月先後兩次向港交所遞交上市申請，但最終亦不了了之；所以今次再捲土重來，在估值及定價方面亦相對較保守(2018年歷史市盈率約9倍)，這或許是其中一個利好股價的原因。不過基於業務收入模式並不算十分吸引，加上筆者一向對這類急升暴跌股份存有戒心，所以還是建議大家小心一點。
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