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新天綠色能源(00956.HK):19年首三季運營表現合乎預期,維持“買入”評級,目標價2.80港元
格隆匯 10-16 09:01

機構:中泰證券

評級:買入

目標價:2.80港元

首三季風電發電量及天然氣銷量分別同比增長14.3%及25.3%

公司上週五(11日)公佈了19年第三季運營數字。第三季風電發電量及天然氣銷量分別同比上升14.0%及18.8%至1,373吉瓦時和494百萬立方米。換言之,公司19年首三季風電發電量及天然氣銷量分別同比增長14.3%和25.3%至6,153吉瓦時及2,145百萬立方米,相等於我們全年預測的69.9%和65.8%,接近18年同期實際比率之70.1%和65.1%,合乎我們預期。

市場對風電板塊的關注

我們重申我們的看法,華能集團近期提出私有化(華能新能源(958HK;買入;目標價3.10港元)H股之計劃,可提升市場對風電板塊的關注,並有利風電板塊估值。

秋季來臨,天然氣板塊迎接季節性旺季

隨着秋季來臨,天然氣板塊迎接年底及春節之季節性旺季。此外,中俄東線於今年第四季開始運營在即。俄羅斯將首先向我國黑龍江及其他東北地區供應天然氣,有利激發中國天然氣需求。我們認為這些因素將可在技術上增加市場對天然氣板塊的關注。

維持“買入”評級

我們維持盈利預測及由貼現現金流分析(DCF)推算的2.80港元目標價(見圖表1和2),這對應5.6倍2020年市盈率和29.0%上升空間。維持“買入”評級。

風險提示:(一)項目開發延誤、(二)應收賬款風險、(三)併網電價下跌。

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