星展:恆生(0011.HK)缺乏股價催化劑 予目標價172港元
星展發表研究報告,重新覆蓋恆生銀行(00011.HK),予其“持有”評級,目標價172港元。星展表示,在香港銀行中,恆生預期最受利率下行週期的環境影響,主要由於其資產負債表中有龐大的港元及美元資產。
星展預料,LIBOR/HIBOR分別每下跌50點/25點子,將引致恆生的淨息差下跌10個基點,對比中銀香港(02388.HK)為下跌7個基點、大新銀行集團(02356.HK)下跌4個基點,及東亞銀行(00023.HK)跌3個基點。星展估計,因香港流動性收緊或有助於緩解下行,恆生明年的淨息差料將按年下降6個基點至2.13%。
星展又預期,恆生明年至2021年的盈利增長為4%,另外由於宏觀環境具挑戰性及本地經濟疲弱,預料恆生未來兩年的貸款增長將放慢至介乎4%至5%,考慮及存款競爭和資本流出,存款與貸款增長的趨勢料將相對密切。
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