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摩通:料香港今年零售銷售錄雙位數字跌幅 下行風險明顯
格隆匯 10-03 11:50

摩根大通發表報告表示,就香港公佈今年8月的零售業總銷貨價值的臨時估計為294億元,按年下跌23%,在扣除其間價格變動後,今年8月的零售業總銷貨數量的臨時估計按年下跌25.3%(該行及市場同業原料跌17.8%),錄自1982年以來最大跌幅。

基於第二季經濟增長低預期,就本地政治示威事件於短期能獲解決的可能性存在不明朗,兼且中美貿易緊張持續,該行料香港於2019年經濟增長為按年升0.3%,此基於香港情況於第四季錄得部份正常化,在示威活動能降温的預期之下,而港府為家庭推出支援經濟措施。不過,該行認為,若示威活動長期持續,香港經濟下行風險明顯。估計本港零售銷售未來會持續下滑,今年錄雙位數字跌幅。

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