《大行報告》花旗:中石油(00857.HK)國慶前宣布兩重大發現 對中期天然氣增長正面
花旗發表報告表示,中石油(00857.HK)於中華人民共和國成立70周年國慶前夕,宣布兩大勘探成果,包括在在鄂爾多斯盆地長7生油層內勘探獲得重大發現,新增探明地質儲量3.58億噸,預測地質儲量6.93億噸,發現了10億噸級的慶城大油田;天然氣方面,公司亦在四川長寧-威遠和太陽區塊新增探明頁岩氣地質儲量7,409.71億立方米,累計探明1.06萬億立方米頁岩氣地質儲量。
該行指,目前過早討論上述發現對產量潛在增加的影響,但相信對公司中期天然氣產量增加正面。該行維持中石油「買入」評級及目標價5.8元。
花旗表示,國家管道公司仍是投資中石油前景的焦點,內媒報道指中石油、中石化(00386.HK)及中海油(00883.HK)在首階段將是管道公司的主要股東。該行料在近期交易情境假設下,中石油所持管道公司的持股量或會被攤薄至50%以下,估值或介乎市賬率的1倍至1.2倍。在第二階段,管道公司會以市場方式進行配股融資,料作價會有所提高(市賬率1.5至1.6倍)予保險基金、其他國際石油企業等投資者。假設上述預期發生,料有助市場對中石油進行重估,因目前市場對其所持管道資產估值僅相當市賬率1倍。
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