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中國太保(02601.HK):中國太保擬發行GDR,國際化佈局利好公司長期發展,維持“審慎增持”評級,目標價8.62港元
格隆匯 09-30 15:02

機構:興業證券

評級:審慎增持

目標價:8.62港元

投資要點

我們的觀點:我們維持公司“審慎增持”評級,下調公司目標價4.2%至38.62港元。2019-2021年,中國太保目標價對應的集團每股內含價值分別為0.90、0.77及0.67倍,建議投資者關注。

中國太保擬發行GDR:中國太保於2019年9月23日舉行的董事會議中審議通過發行GDR,並申請將GDR納入UKFCA認可名單及在倫敦證券交易所主要市場滬倫通板塊買賣。GDR以新增發的A股作為基礎證券。本次發行的GDR所代表的新增基礎證券A股股票不超過6.2867億股,即不超過本次發行前公司A股股份的10%。若發行GDR成功,中國太保將成為首家A+H+G三地上市的內資綜合性保險公司。

股價或短期承壓,對ROEV影響有限,國際化佈局長期利好公司發展:發行GDR後,太保壽險ROEV水平將從16.96%降至15.98%,攤薄帶來的總體影響有限。GDR的發行亦有望拓寬公司的融資渠道,在“償二代二期”工程即將落地的背景下為公司進一步補充淨資本;此外,亦能提升公司在海外市場的知名度,推進國際化進程,符合轉型2.0的戰略目標。

“穩”中求“進”,業務品質持續提升:截至2019年6月30日,公司總內涵價值達到3,651億元,較2018年末增長8.6%。2019H1,公司壽險新業務價值率為39.0%,較2018年末下降4.7個百分點。公司壽險2019H1一年新業務價值為149.3億元,同比下降8.4%。截止至2019年6月30日,中國太保集團投資資產規模達到1.4萬億元,同比增長15.2%。2019H1,公司總投資收益率為4.8%,同比上升0.2個百分點;淨投資收益率為4.6%,同比降低0.3個百分點。

風險提示:資本市場波動,保費增速不達預期,公司經營風險,保險行業政策改變。

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