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麥格理:下調鞍鋼(0347.HK)目標價至2.5港元 評級“跑輸大市”
格隆匯 09-25 11:38
麥格理髮表研究報告,指相較該行所覆蓋其他鋼企,鞍鋼股份(0347.HK) 對鋼及原材料市場價格走勢更為敏感,主因其對白色家電參與度最大,該行指美國新一輪關税措施後,出口間接減少,料白色家電銷售將面對更大壓力。
麥格理料鞍鋼第三季毛利會進一步降至每噸260元( 人民幣, 下同),主因熱軋卷板(HRC)價格按季跌4%及鐵礦石價格第三季按季升10%見頂。該行指,鞍鋼上半年業績符預期,但第三季利潤料進一步受壓,管理層承認季內成本壓力加劇,其原材料價格與市場價格高度關連。麥格理並料第四季汽車市場迎來複蘇,冬季潛在減產致市場情緒改善,及末季鐵礦石價格料降。考慮指標HRC價格每噸4136元的預期,麥格理料鞍鋼第四季毛利可回升至每噸570元,相當於毛利率13%,按季升6.5個百分點。
麥格理又指,鞍鋼持銀行承兑匯票3.38億元出現逾期未償付情況,未來可能被後手貼現方追索銀行承兑匯票為4.94億元。鞍鋼指,其生產經營穩定運行,資金較為充足,上述銀行承兑匯票逾期未獲償付,不會對公司當期現金流構成重大影響。公司已組成應對風險小組,包括處理法律程序,及調整應收賬結構,但該行認為,已對手頭現金只有30億元的鞍鋼帶來現金流壓力。考慮利潤率下滑,報告降鞍鋼2019至2021年每股盈測介乎2%至28%,目標價由3港元降至2.5港元,相當於今年預測市盈率7.5倍,評級“ 跑輸大市 ”。
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