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美銀美林:藥品“4+7”帶量採購擴至全國開標 料對龍頭藥廠影響有限
格隆匯 09-24 11:52
美銀美林發表的報告指,內地藥品 “4+7” 帶量採購擴至全國開標,相信措施將帶來較預期多的正面影響,並帶動近期醫療健康行業表現正面。該行指出措施的最主要改變是可以選取三家最低價的中標者,而非要求生產商配合最低價格,此外政府與生產商之間亦不會有談判過程,而採購週期亦可延長至兩年。
該行指出,相信均價下調幅度會較上輪細,料將降價約20%左右,並估計措施將在2020年初開始執行。美銀美林亦指出針對在 “4+7” 計劃25種藥物中,撇除原本的生產商,應有14種藥物有少於三家合資格競標者,加上除非跨國藥企進取地競投,否則本地藥企或可達成價格協議而非大力減價。對於擁多於三家競標者藥物,相信競投價格將繼續向下。該行指出,由於涉及的25種藥物在上一輪已有明顯著降價,一些藥物價格已降至接近成本價,所以預期今輪降價幅度將較上一輪温和。
該行相信措施對龍頭藥企影響有限,中國生物製藥(1177.HK) 已是六種藥物的合資格競標者,故相信受惠投標成功及新藥推出,有助抵銷2020年思替卡韋方面的虧損。而恆瑞醫藥(600276.SH)只有一種藥物包括在 “4+7” 中,相信措施影響相對輕微。
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