花旗:料券商股受益於減息週期 推薦中信證券(6030.HK)等
花旗發表研究報告指,中國正進入減息週期,預計中國貸款市場報價利率(LPR)第四季將再下調5-10個基點;所覆蓋的金融子板塊中,券商是減息周期唯一的受益板塊,推薦業績對A股成交變動高度敏感、且估值有吸引力的券商H股,包括中信證券(6030.HK)、海通證券(6837.HK)和中國銀河(6881.HK)。
報告預計,中國將在10月或11月下調中期借貸便利(MLF)利率,LPR會隨之逐步下行,基準情形下,預測中國MLF在四季度下調10個基點,引發LPR下調5個基點,導致LPR較基準貸款利率低20個基點。結合9月6日降準50個基點的影響,預計中國銀行股2020年的淨息差和税後淨利潤將收窄3個基點及2.1%,比此前花旗預估為佳。此前花旗預計所覆蓋銀行2020年淨息差收窄4.6個基點,税後利潤減少3%。
報告解釋,券商股受惠於降息週期的原因包括:兩融淨息差有望擴張;無風險利率下行、投資者情緒改善、流動性更好將有利於A股。
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