《大行报告》中金首予中粮肉食(01610.HK)「跑赢行业」评级目标价3.6元
中金发表报告指,首次覆盖研究中粮肉食(01610.HK),给予「跑赢行业」评级,目标价3.6元,对应2019/2020年市盈率为31.2/5.8倍。中金预计,公司今明两年每股盈利分别为0.1、0.57元人民币,年均复合增长率为212.6%,认为猪价上涨将带动公司明年业绩大幅释放。
该行表示,通过弹性测算和历史框架进行判断,认为当前猪价处於上行周期中,相对看好今年下半年及明年猪价表现。同时,中国生猪养殖龙头具有成本优势,但整体市占率较低,行业前五位养殖公司总市占率仅约7%,认为未来养殖规模化与头部份额提升将是确定趋势。
中金认为,中粮肉食以自繁自养模式为主,配套种猪、饲料、硬件等设施,以保障高效率及低成本。而且公司经营稳健,财务健康,具有产能扩张基础。预计今年公司生猪养殖产能将增加近100万头至约500万头。同时,考虑非洲猪瘟疫情影响,认为今年公司生猪出栏量将承压,但因下半年公司母猪存栏开始回升,公司明年出栏量有望恢复。整体看,预计2019/2020年出栏量分别为220/300万头,按年下跌13.7%/上升36.4%。
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