中金:升神华(1088.HK)评级至“跑赢大市” 上调目标价至25港元
中金发表报告表示,上调对中国神华(1088.HK)
投资评级至“
跑赢大市
”,目标价升32%至25港元,相当于预测明年企业价值对EBITDA的4.7倍,以反映预期可受惠煤价上升、兼且公司坐拥强劲的现金。
该行指,料内地今年第四季煤价将上升,因受严格环境限制影响、进口煤价毛利下跌,及需求复苏,该行于中期对煤价感正面,因煤仍然中国主要的能源,而行业的去杠杆及再投资活动仍然持续。
中金称,神华目前享有低生产成本的优势,同时有90%产品以“
长约
”的方式出售,公司同时经营电厂、铁路、港口等,有助竞争力。
该行指,神华于6月底净现金达810亿元人民币,相当总体资本20%;假设煤价为每吨550至580元人民币,公司自由现金流可达610亿至620亿元人民币,相等于公司H股市值的21%。若未来三年公司的净现金可维持2000亿元人民币以上,派息比率40%,有助其股本回报。
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