世茂房地产(0813.HK )：稳健经营模型进入收获期，首次覆盖给予“买入”评级，目标价29.70港元
机构：中信证券
评级：买入
目标价：29.70港元
核心观点
公司销售弹性可期，酒店等经营能力较强。财务结构健康，资金成本具备竞争力。我们给予公司29.70港元/股目标价，首次覆盖，给予“买入”投资评级。
▍行业背景：新时代、新挑战。行业面临房价平稳，毛利率下行，信用分层的全新时代。企业稳健的经营记录，较低的资金成本、良好的运营能力，都成为应对盈利能力下降等挑战的重要资本。
▍沉淀多年，管理有道。公司开发风格不疾不徐，在较长的时间内跨越周期，累积了优质的土地储备，也形成了高效的管理架构。即使在行业竞争对手跟投机制蔚然成风的那几年，公司仍然坚持以挂钩公司整体业绩的股票和薪酬激励为主，慎言跟投，这为今日公司稳定经营奠定了基础。而公司放权区域，打破边界，使得中层既有成就感，又有物质激励。
▍销售弹性开始出现，土地储备质量较高。公司曾经在一段时间发展不快，但过去两年公司拿地积极，销售弹性重新出现。到2019年，公司销售增速已经达到行业较高水平。公司以多种方式新增土地储备，透过和泰禾等公司合作的模式控制土地成本。未来尽管行业毛利率有下行压力(公司也不例外)，但由于拿地策略得当以及资金成本较低，预计公司盈利能力在业内仍有优势。
▍物业经营积累深厚，酒店盈利能力较强。2019年上半年，公司酒店收入10.62亿元，商娱收入8.41亿元，物业管理收入9.58亿元，均有明显增长。公司对于商业、酒店等业务的定位，始终都是坚持非住宅独立发展，培育经营（而不只是将非住宅作为住宅土地获取的附属手段，忽视酒店等项目选址）。一些项目虽然开发时间较长，但资源底子较好，随着时间的流逝其丰厚盈利能力终于开始显现。公司物业管理逐渐走上独立发展的道路。
▍公司杠杆稳定，资金成本具备优势。公司的资金成本具备一定优势：1）公司融资渠道通畅，，融资方式多元；2）公司坚守财务红线，资本市场形象较好。公司净负债率连续7年控制在60%以下；3）公司财务结构健康，公司有息负债中长期债务占比较高，一年内到期债务占比不足30%，货币资金对短期有息负债覆盖比例达158%。
▍风险提示。公司在港资源储备受香港楼市可能波动的影响；公司外币负债占负债比例较高，存在一定汇率风险。
▍盈利预测与投资评级。公司近两年合约销售金额同比有较大的增长，未来竣工仍有明显上升空间，业绩弹性可期。我们给予公司2019/2020/2021年EPS3.44/4.49/5.24元的预测，对应NAV预测41.26港元/股。我们首次覆盖，给予公司2020年6倍PE，合29.70港元/股，给予“买入”投资评级。
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