植耀輝: 港燃(01083.HK)憧憬被收購 成事機會料不大
耀才植耀輝表示，筆者日常其中一樣做得最多的事情可能就是檢閱不同大行之研究報告。由於大行資源充裕，所以研究報告特別是有關行業的仔細分析基本上每次看完也會有所得著。有時在完成講座後，個別投資者亦會「捉住」筆者，詢問對大行報告的看法。的確，個別大行如「大摩」一吹「摩笛」，市場自然亦會「震一震」。
對筆者來說，一直強調的是要有自己的獨立分析及思考，所以大行報告一般只會作為參考之用。不過今日筆者想談談一份頗特別的研究報告，而主角就是港華燃氣(01083.HK)。
事緣有大行預期，華潤燃氣(01193.HK)將可能以每股$7.57-$8.73，亦即市賬率1.3至1.5倍收購港燃。消息一出港燃股價一度單日大升超過18%(09/09)。有關收購理據主要有三方面。第一，內地燃氣行業正蘊釀併購潮，中小型企業將成為潛在收購目標；第二，在云云燃氣相關公司中，港燃估值呈大拆讓，亦令被收購的可能性較高；最後因流通量須達25%(現時為23.9%)，華燃有機會發行新股，因此亦增添其收購的可能性。
併購會否如該大行所預期，現階段不得而知；不過筆者想指出的是，一宗交易的出現，基本上是要符合雙方的最大利益。以上三個論點可能是買方所想，亦有一定道理，例如行業整合是大勢所趨等；但賣方是否願意出售又是另一回事。港燃母公司就是大家熟悉的煤氣(00003.HK)。事實上煤氣近年本地發展平平，但內地則有望成為未來其中一個新亮點，加上煤氣本身財政狀況仍見穩健，因此現階段煤氣實沒有放棄華燃之誘因。執筆之時另一大行亦發表報告，認為有關收購只屬傳聞，暫且看事態往後之發展。不過，港燃股價確實因此收購消息而急彈，只是一旦憧憬完全幻滅，股價亦無可避免出現震盪矣！所以大家亦無謂高追。
但有時大行研究報告確又相當有趣。同一份報告，雖然看好港燃，但同時卻給予煤氣評級為「沽售」─按理若照「劇本」出售，煤氣套現後有望加強發展其他業務(其實煤氣除氣外，於內地尚有其他如水利等業務)，甚至派發特別息！不過平心而論，煤氣前景確又真的充滿較多不明朗因素，所以亦不需急於買入。
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