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中金:下调招商局港口(0144.HK)目标价至16.40港元 维持“跑赢行业”评级
格隆汇 09-09 10:28

中金报告称,招商局港口(00144.HK)2019年上半年收入同比下滑 19.7%至44.64亿港元,主要因为2018年6月出售赤湾;归母净利润同比增长19.8%至65.29亿港元(每 股盈利1.91港元)。经常性净利润同比下滑5.8%至20.45 亿港元 (其中26.51亿港元来自港口运营,同比下降 4.9%)。经常性净利润符合中金预期。2019年上半年,由于需求偏弱,集装箱总吞吐量仅小幅同比增长1.4%(国内增长 0.8%,海外增长 4%),低于去年同期同比 7.3%的增速(国内增长 5.1%,海外增长 18.2%)。分区域看,珠三角地区同比下滑 7.2%, 主要因为出售深圳赤湾。

招商局港口管理层预计2019年集装箱量持平或有低单位数增长,主要驱动力来自海外地区中高单位数增长。此外,管理层预计国内港口集装箱装卸作业费可能持平,海外港口装卸费可能上涨。

维持2019年盈利预期80.75亿港元和2020年盈利预期58.9亿元港元。当前股价对应5.2倍2019年和7.1倍2020年市盈率,0.5倍2019年和0.5倍2020年市净率。公司将保持派息占净利润的比例在40-50%的派息政策不变。

维持跑赢行业评级,主要考虑低估值以及具备吸引力的股息收益率,但将目标价下调20.5%至16.40 港元,对应6.9倍2019年和9.5倍2020年市盈率,较当前股价有34.0%的上行空间,主要因为吞吐量增速放缓以及市场对港口公司的风险偏好下降。

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