中骏集团控股(01966.HK)：小而美，期待业绩释放，维持“买入”评级
机构：东北证券
评级：买入
公司公布2019年中期业绩报告，报告期内实现收益104亿元，同比增长11%，实现归母应占溢利19.17亿元，同比微降5%；归母应占核心溢利15.44亿元，同比增长29%；报告期内毛利率28.9%，较去年同期下降3.4pc。
销售保持高弹性增长，后续货值充足。2019年上半年，公司实现销售规模370亿元，同比大幅增长78%，超出2016-2018年的CAGR48%；销售均价为12481元/平米，与2018年全年均价基本持平；上半年公司已完成年初设定的700亿元销售目标的53%，完成度位居行业前列。预计公司下半年推售货值达650亿元，完成700亿元的销售目标基本无虞，大概率将超额完成。
把握市场周期，深耕已覆盖城市。上半年，公司合计新增27幅土地，新增建筑面积527万平米，对应货值为700亿元；土地总对价为240亿元，权益比例为60.07%，公司需支付的权益对价约为144亿元；平均土地成本均价为4557元/平米，地货比为2.74。截止至6月底，公司的总土储为2812万平米（若计入投资物业，则为2901万平米），其中一线、二线城市占比分别为12%、66%，土储具备一定安全垫。
财务杠杆依然稳健，流动性保持充裕。公司一如既往的保持稳健杠杆策略，截止至6月底，公司总负债规模为403.55亿元，较2018年底上升21%；净负债率为66.2%，较去年同期下降2个百分点；加权融资成本为6.7%,较2018年全年平均成本上升0.3个百分点。债务中一年以内债务占比仅为22.7%，现金短债覆盖比达到2.56倍，较2018年底又有一定程度改善。
维持公司买入评级，预计2019、2020、2021年三年的EPS分别为0.98、1.19、1.53元，对应PE分别为3.5、2.9、2.2倍；
风险提示：项目结转进度不及预期；合联营项目结转速度较快；重点布局区域市场下行。
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