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美银美林:在香港地产行业中喜欢物业发展股份 下调香港地产股目标价
格隆汇 09-05 17:39
美银美林发表报告,港府昨宣布正式撤回逃犯修订条例草案,香港地产股昨率先强劲反弹,该行期望地产股估值在今次危机下已见最坏时刻,但相信未来走势仍会波动,行业基本因素复苏仍需要时间。
该行指,在香港地产行业中喜欢物业发展股份,因供应有限及需求稳固,在发展商中喜欢业务多元化的长实集团(1113.HK) 及现金流充裕的信和置业(0083.HK) ,但该行最不喜爱写字楼股份,因全球经济面临放缓,决定维持置地(HKL.SP)“ 跑输大市 ”评级,下调对冠君(2778.HK) 评级由“ 中性 ”降至“ 跑输大市 ”,削目标价19%至5.5港元,并降太古地产(1972.HK) 评级至“ 中性 ”,指在防守性股份中喜爱领展(0823.HK) 及港铁(0066.HK)
美银美林表示,调低对地产股于2019年至2021年每股盈利预测平均2%至8%,并下调香港地产股目标价,因料香港今年年底的住宅楼价(基本情境预测),会由年内高位至年底回落10%(全年料跌2%),并估计明年第一季会进一步转弱、料明年下半年将回稳,料明年全年楼价按年持平。
该行下调长实集团目标价由65港元降至64港元,微降信置目标价至12.9港元,将新地(0016.HK) 目标价由128港元降至125港元,维持“ 中性 ”投资评级。
该行认为港府正式撤回逃犯修订条例草案对楼市买家的影响属中性至轻微正面,并预期港府会持续增加土地供应。而该行估计中环写字楼租金(基本情境预测)明年将回落一成。
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