《大行報告》中金:內地壽險增長壓力持續 車險承保開始好轉
中金發表報告指,中資上市保險公司披露了今年中報業績,淨利潤按年大幅增長75%,剔除一次性稅收返還後增速為39%。新業務價值按年持平。內含價值較年初增長12%(加回分紅影響後),股東權益較年初增長14%。該行維持對各中資保險公司目標價和評級不變。
該行表示,上半年行業新業務價值按年持平,如果剔除國壽(02628.HK)的增長23%,則行業按年下降5%,總體低於市場預期。行業人力環比年初下降2%,除國壽升9%和新華(01336.HK)升4%以外,各公司均負增長。代理人人均新業務價值產能按年下降2%,說明行業人均收入大概率亦有下降,因此認為今年下半年行業人力增長依然困難。考慮到下半年新業務相對基數較高,預計下半年行業新業務價值按年增長將為低個位數水平,或弱於市場預期。
中金提到,股市反彈和所得稅新規推動利潤超預期。上半年行業淨利潤按年強勁增長75%,超出市場預期。這主要受益於A股反彈推動投資收益按年大幅提升;所得稅新規帶來的18年多繳所得稅返還,剔除該一次性影響則淨利潤按年增長39%;所得稅新規推動實際稅率按年下降,行業實際稅率按年下降11個百分點。該行預計下半年利潤按年增速將有回落。
另外,該行表示車險承保盈利開始好轉。財險綜合成本率按年上升0.7個百分點至98.2%。車險綜合成本率按年上升0.7個百分點至98.1%,但是較去年下半年下降0.6個百分點,說明監管對手續費率的嚴監管已經開始驅動車險行業承保盈利好轉,今年下半年改善將更加顯著。
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