中国金茂(00817.HK)：持续推进混改，城市运营发力，维持“买入”评级，目标价7.2港元
机构：兴业证券
评级：买入
目标价：7.2港元
投资要点
维持“买入”评级，目标价7.2港元：公司拥有清晰的发展战略，通过持续混改释放企业活力，通过城市运营获取优质土储，开发+持有物业携手并进行业第一梯队，多渠道低成本融资优势明显。我们预计公司2019/2020年净利润分别为66.3和86.4亿元，分别同比增长30.3%和30.4%。我们维持公司“买入”评级，目标价7.2港元，对应2019/2020年PE为11/9倍，较现价还有52%的上升空间。公司保持40%的派息率，目前股价对应的股息收益率超过5%。
中期业绩符合预期：公司2019年上半年营业收入147.4亿元人民币（下同），同比减少33%，主要由于销售物业竣工交付较去年大幅减少，跟公司结转节奏有关系，全年将恢复增长；毛利54.3亿元，同比减少38%，股东应占核心净利润为32.8亿元，同比增长4%。毛利率和净利率分别为36.8%（物业开发毛利率达到34%）和22.3%，利润率水平行业领先，中期业绩符合预期。公司继续保持40%派息率，中期每股派息12港仙。截止2019年6月底，公司仍有1766亿已售未结转货值，为公司未来业绩的稳步增长提供保障。
持续推进混改，引入平安集团：公司引入中国平安集团（持股比例15.2%，并拥有一个非执董席位）。新华保险仍为公司第三大股东（持股比例9.2%，同时拥有一个非执董席位）；中化集团持股比例降至35.1%，但仍然是中国金茂单一最大控股股东。混改的持续推进将释放企业发展的活力。
实际销售增速远高于行业均值：2019年1-6月份，公司合同销售金额和面积分别为785亿元和358万平米，将去年上半年的销售额剔除大宗交易后，实际增速达到79%，远高于行业的平均水平。
城市运营发力，补充优质土储：公司上半年新增643万平米土地储备，城市运营贡献土地储备占比达到45%。新增土地成本仅5300元每平米，占当期销售均价的比例为24%，确保丰厚利润空间。截至8月，已锁定的城市运营项目达到16个，总规模超过5500万，将成为公司高速发展的坚实基础。
风险提示：宏观经济增长放缓；行业调控政策加严；流动性收紧；公司销售不及预期；文旅城经营不及预期；人民币贬值。
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