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野村:内地调整责任准备金评估利率 对寿险业无影响
格隆汇 09-02 17:21

野村发表研究报告指,中国银保监会早前发出有关完善寿险业责任准备金评估利率形成机制及调整责任准备金评估利率有关事项的通知,该行认为有关公布仅用于监管,对目前的国际财务报告准则(IFRS)、内含价值(EV)及偿付能力等无直接影响。该行重申倾向优质的品牌,包括中国平安(2318.HK)及中国太保(2601.HK),因为较高的利润率但对投资回报的敏感度较低,能够为不断上升的负面风险提供更多缓衡。

野村表示,高回报保证的产品将被禁止销售,将有助于逐步稳定寿险公司未偿还负债的平均保证回报,从而控制利差风险。产品的保证回报率越高,未来的业务增长挑战就愈大,基于新业务价值对过去几年的投资回报敏感度,该行估计,订单最受影响的是中国人寿(2628.HK),其次是中国太平(0966.HK),然后是新华保险(1336.HK)及中国太保,最后是平保。

该行又指,企业的高保证收益率产品销售增加,因此看到新业务价值对投资回报的敏感度上升,而监管机构已密切关注,只要利率保持下降趋势,风险将会保持不变。

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