蒙牛乳业( 02319.HK ) 2019H1业绩点评:收入增长符合预期,维持“买入”评级,目标价33.27港元
机构:广发证券
评级:买入
目标价:33.27港元
核心观点:
2019H1业绩:收入同比增长15.6%,归母净利润同比增长33%
液态奶收入同比增长14.4%,奶粉收入同比增长43.8%,冰淇淋收入同比下跌2.4%。毛利率微跌0.1个百分点至39.1%。销售费用率同比下降0.5个百分点至28.4%。广告和宣传费用率同比下降0.6个百分点至12.2%。行政和其他费用率,包括金融及合约资产减值损失,同比增加0.2个百分点至5.6%。应占联营公司损益由去年同期亏损100.5百万元转盈利103.4百万元。并表子公司雅士利收入同比增长16.2%至1747.4百万元。
市场担忧公司奶粉业务增长乏力和全年营业利润率的压力
奶粉业务增速高于雅士利收入增速,市场担忧即将出表的君乐宝会使公司奶粉收入增速降低。去年上半年销售费用率基数较高,市场亦担心2019下半年奶价持续上行背景下公司无法实现50基点营业利润率提升。
维持2019-2021年业绩分别为1.65元/股、1.20元/股和1.47元/股
公司仍将持续推动产品创新以结构改善抵消奶价上涨带来的成本压力。君乐宝盈利能力低于蒙牛,其出表后亦能带动盈利能力改善。维持2019-2021年EPS分别为1.65元/股和1.20元/股和1.47元/股。当前股价对应2019-2021年的PE估值倍数分别为17.06、23.37和19.05倍。我们给予其2020年25倍PE估值,对应历史平均水平。根据汇率调整合理价值为33.27港元,维持买入评级。
风险提示
市场竞争加剧;消费者需求波动风险;

Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!

Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.