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耀才团队: 恒指发出死亡交叉讯号 後市不宜太过乐观
阿思达克 08-30 10:51

耀才证券研究部团队称,隔晚(29日)美股反弹。美国总统特朗普表示周四稍晚将与中国举行不同级别的对话,市场憧憬中美之间紧张的贸易局势得以缓和,资金重新流入风险资产。道指收市升326点或1.25%,收报26,362点;标普500指数升1.27%,收报2,924点;纳指升1.48%,收报7,973点。目前美股聚焦贸易战後续,经济数据暂时未对大市产生太大影响。隔晚公布的美国第二季GDP按年增长由2.1%向下修订至2%,虽然和市场预期相若,但低於第一季度的3.1%和上半年平均的2.6%;第二季核心PCE通胀则为1.7%,低於预期的1.8%;申领失业救济金人数亦较预期多。

美国经济基本面并未显着改善,贸易战虽有好消息,但中美深层纷争亦难以短时间内解决,风险资产短线反弹空间有限,後市依然易跌难升。隔晚港股ADR收市升83点,夜期则预示港股将至少高开170点。目前港股仍聚焦企业业绩,今日将有多只内银股和基建股放榜,包括中行(03988.HK)、民行(01988.HK)、中铁(00390.HK)、中交建(01800.HK)和中铁建(01186.HK),值得留意。

从技术上看,恒指50天线跌穿250天线,发出死亡交叉讯号,即使短线出现反弹,後市亦不宜太过乐观。目前大市在二万六大关面临较大阻力,倘恒指未能企稳於26,000点楼上,指数後市很大可能会顺势跌穿8月低位24,899点,并续创年内新低。

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