中粮肉食(1610.HK)：上半年营收快速增长，中期业绩扭亏为盈
机构：天风证券
事件：公司发布2019年中期业绩公告。上半年实现营业收入为44.03亿元，同比提高34.9%；期内溢利在生物资产公允价值调整前亏损2.76亿元，较去年同期的0.11亿元减少了2.87亿元，在生物资产公允价值调整后其则录得0.93亿元，同比增长了137.5%。
出栏量稳步增长，短期仍然亏损上半年，生猪养殖业务实现收入11.1亿元，同比增长27%，但是亏损4.36亿元，主要是非洲猪瘟导致猪价低迷、公司加大生物安全防控投入等因素对养殖业绩产生一定影响。上半年公司生猪出栏145.1万头，同比增长15.2%，均重105.4公斤。截至2019年6月底已建成生猪养殖产能463.8万头，较年初增加54.9万头，新场均已投放母猪。下半年公司将按计划继续扩大母猪群体，保障后续出栏量。
增加猪肉库存，品牌生鲜持续推进
2019年上半年公司生鲜猪肉实现收入14.2亿元，同比增长11.2%，公司适当增加猪肉库存，生鲜猪肉销量8.6万吨，同比小幅下滑6.0%，其中品牌猪肉销量1.9万吨，同比基本稳定。品牌生鲜收入增长15.8%达4.51亿元，品牌生鲜收入占比同比提高1.2个百分点至31.3%，生鲜猪肉分部产能利用率已达91.9%，同比提高7.6个百分点。公司继续大力打造盒装猪肉超级单品，2019年上半年销量1320万盒，同比增加72.2%，日均销量突破7.3万盒。公司与新零售渠道深度合作，盒装猪肉已进驻某中高端生鲜电商全国69家门店，安全、新鲜、便捷、精分割的产品特质深受消费者欢迎。
扩大进口规模，肉类进口业务增长明显在国内肉类供应偏紧的趋势下，公司继续深化全品类、多国别的采购体系，扩大进口来源。上半年实现分部销量5.9万吨，同比增长42.5%，分部收入16.94亿元，同比增长76.6%。其中，牛肉销量3.1万吨，同比增长129.1%。作为战略重点，公司持续进行区域和渠道深耕，牛肉终端型业务销量同比增长109.1%。公司进口冰鲜牛肉及高端谷饲牛肉销量快速增长，高端零售及餐饮客户黏性进一步增强。
养殖规模持续扩大，产业协同提升长期盈利能力
猪价景气周期的逐步到来以及生猪养殖规模的持续扩大，将成为公司业绩增长的核心驱动力。公司旗下拥有数十个猪场，两个屠宰加工工厂，两个肉制品加工工厂，以及两个核心品牌“家佳康” 和“万威客”，全产业链垂直整合的业务模式覆盖了整个猪肉行业价值链。在长期，不仅能够通过产业协同一定程度上降低成本提高盈利能力，并平滑业绩波动，并且能够严格保证食品安全，为公司长期成长打造坚实品牌基础。短期，在非洲猪瘟疫情的大背景下，更是能够提升产品议价能力。
盈利预测与投资建议
我们预计2019-2020年公司营收90.39/128.39亿港元，同比增长26.11%/42.03%，净利润9.36/24.85亿港元，对应EPS分别为0.24/0.64港元/股，对应当前收盘价的PE分别为9倍和3倍，维持“买入”评级。
风险提示：疫病风险；猪价不达预期风险；出栏量不达预期风险
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