一表了解券商對蒙牛(02319.HK)於業績後最新目標價及觀點
蒙牛乳業(02319.HK)今早股價於業績後有回吐，曾挫逾6%最低見31.3港元。該公司昨日(28日)收市後公布6月底止中期業績，收入按年增加15.6%至398.57億人民幣(下同)，純利按年增長33%至20.77億元，每股盈利53.1分，不派中期息。
期內毛利按年上升15.2%至155.79億元，主要受惠良好收入增長及產品結構顯著優化支持；毛利率輕微下跌0.1個百分點至39.1%。
【績後有回吐 核心業務遜】
大和認為，蒙牛乳業中期純利略勝該行預期，主要受來自附屬現代牧業(01117.HK)的收益勝預期，但收入勝預期遭毛利率輕微下跌部分所抵銷。該行認為蒙牛從營運層面來說屬輕微遜預期，該行給予蒙牛乳業「買入」評級，目標價36.6元。而摩根士丹利表示，蒙牛期內純利按年升33%大致符合該行預期，營運溢利升21%，營業利益率(OPM)擴闊0.3個百分點至5.3%，低於該行原預期5.8%，主要是毛利率39.1%較預期為低(按年跌0.1個百分點、較該行預期低0.6個百分點)。
【核心經營溢利率增長遠遜預期】
瑞信指出，蒙牛乳業中期收入增長達15.6%，較市場預期快2個百分點，亦高於管理層全年指引的低雙位數增長，但毛利率表現令人失望。中期毛利率成本壓力及推廣開支沉重拖累，抵銷產品組合改善利好，按年收窄0.1個百分點。核心經營溢利率按年擴大40點子，但仍落後市場預期逾50點子。該行目前給予蒙牛乳業「跑贏大市」評級，目標價35港元。
本網最新綜合8間券商對其投資評級及目標價：
券商│投資評級│目標價(港元)
里昂│買入│36.6元
大和│買入│36.6元
花旗│買入│35.66元
摩根士丹利│增持│35元
瑞信│跑贏大市│35元
摩根大通│增持│33.8元
美銀美林│買入│33.5元
高盛│中性│31.1元券商│觀點
里昂│銷售勝預期，毛利率受高端品牌投資影響遜預期
大和│業績略勝預期，但並非具質素業績
花旗│核心純利勝預期，為該行中國消費股首選
摩根士丹利│業績符預期，但營業利益率擴張遜預期
瑞信│收入勝預期，毛利率令人失望
摩根大通│銷售及盈利勝預期，受液態奶強勁及銷售開支控制推動
美銀美林│業績穩固，收入勝預期，毛利率大致符合預期
高盛│核心經營溢利受液態奶及君樂寶貢獻推動
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