一表了解券商对蒙牛(02319.HK)於业绩後最新目标价及观点
蒙牛乳业(02319.HK)今早股价於业绩後有回吐，曾挫逾6%最低见31.3元。该公司昨日(28日)收市後公布6月底止中期业绩，收入按年增加15.6%至398.57亿人民币(下同)，纯利按年增长33%至20.77亿元，每股盈利53.1分，不派中期息。
期内毛利按年上升15.2%至155.79亿元，主要受惠良好收入增长及产品结构显着优化支持；毛利率轻微下跌0.1个百分点至39.1%。
【绩後有回吐 核心业务逊】
大和认为，蒙牛乳业中期纯利略胜该行预期，主要受来自附属现代牧业(01117.HK)的收益胜预期，但收入胜预期遭毛利率轻微下跌部分所抵销。该行认为蒙牛从营运层面来说属轻微逊预期，该行给予蒙牛乳业「买入」评级，目标价36.6元。而摩根士丹利表示，蒙牛期内纯利按年升33%大致符合该行预期，营运溢利升21%，营业利益率(OPM)扩阔0.3个百分点至5.3%，低於该行原预期5.8%，主要是毛利率39.1%较预期为低(按年跌0.1个百分点、较该行预期低0.6个百分点)。
【核心经营溢利率增长远逊预期】
瑞信指出，蒙牛乳业中期收入增长达15.6%，较市场预期快2个百分点，亦高於管理层全年指引的低双位数增长，但毛利率表现令人失望。中期毛利率成本压力及推广开支沉重拖累，抵销产品组合改善利好，按年收窄0.1个百分点。核心经营溢利率按年扩大40点子，但仍落後市场预期逾50点子。该行目前给予蒙牛乳业「跑赢大市」评级，目标价35港元。
本网最新综合8间券商对其投资评级及目标价：
券商│投资评级│目标价(港元)
里昂│买入│36.6元
大和│买入│36.6元
花旗│买入│35.66元
摩根士丹利│增持│35元
瑞信│跑赢大市│35元
摩根大通│增持│33.8元
美银美林│买入│33.5元
高盛│中性│31.1元券商│观点
里昂│销售胜预期，毛利率受高端品牌投资影响逊预期
大和│业绩略胜预期，但并非具质素业绩
花旗│核心纯利胜预期，为该行中国消费股首选
摩根士丹利│业绩符预期，但营业利益率扩张逊预期
瑞信│收入胜预期，毛利率令人失望
摩根大通│销售及盈利胜预期，受液态奶强劲及销售开支控制推动
美银美林│业绩稳固，收入胜预期，毛利率大致符合预期
高盛│核心经营溢利受液态奶及君乐宝贡献推动
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