正荣地产（6158.HK）：盈利持续增长，净利率小幅提升，维持“增持”评级
机构：西南证券
评级：增持
投资要点
业绩表现：2019年上半年，公司实现营业收入 136.5 亿，同比增长 10.8%，实现核心净利润 11.5 亿，同比增长 33.4%，实现归属于上市公司股东净利润 9.3亿，同比增长 11.1%。
盈利持续增长，净利率小幅提升：公司在上半年结算比例相对较低，导致营收仅增长 10.8%左右，从结构上看因为环渤海区域、海峡西岸及中西部地区结算比例提升，导致销售毛利率小幅下行 1.7 个百分点至 20.3%。但由于经营效率的提升，公司在报告期净利率反而同比上行 0.9 个百分点至 8.6%。上半年地产结算均价 16,821 元每平米，相比 2018 年均价小幅下降 3.6%，从结转面积口径海峡西安占比 42.5%、长三角占比 38.2%、环渤海占比 11.6%。
供货速度加快、下半年销售有望回归增长：报告期公司完成销售 586 亿，同比基本持平，销售均价为 15,392 元每平米。从结构上看一二线销售贡献占比 77%，从区域上看长三角贡献占比 56%、海峡西岸占比 18%、中西部占比 16%。1-7月完成销售额 687 亿，相当于全年销售目标 1300 亿的 53%，后期销售有一定压力，但考虑到公司产品标准化程度提高，供货速度加快，下半年货值充裕，销售增速有望在下半年体现，预计全年销售额 1300 亿，相当于 20.4%的增长。
聚焦二线和六大区域，土储货值充裕：公司按照“1+6+X”进行布局，报告期公司新增土储建面 323 万方，87%位于强二线城市。截止到上半年末，公司未结算口径土储建面 2634 万方，货值约 4500 亿，权益比 57%，平均土地成本为4624 元每平米。其中，一二线土储合计占比 71%，从面积口径看长三角占比38.2%、海西区域占比 27.9%、中部区域占比 14.9%、环渤海区域占比 12.4%。
净负债率走低、财务结构稳健：报告期末公司净负债率为 70.8%（根据认股事项后调整），相比 2018 年末降低 3.2 个百分点。期末有息负债规模 525.3 亿，其中外币债额度 8.9 亿美元、境内银行贷款 211.2 亿、境内其他贷款 154.6 亿，整体融资成本 7.6%，相比 2018 年下降 0.2 个百分点。
盈利预测与评级：预计公司 2019-2021 年 EPS 分别为 0.74、0.98 和 1.14 元，考虑公司业绩增长确定但短期偿债压力犹存，维持“增持”评级。
风险提示：下半年销售或低于预期、融资进一步收紧等风险。
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