华晨宝马(1114.HK)利润率担忧维持“中性“目标价至7.84港元
机构:国泰君安
评级:中性
目标价:7.84港元
华晨汽车2019上半年的股东利润同比下降9.4%至人民币32.3亿元,差于我们预期。华晨宝马和小巴分部表现均有所下滑,其中合资公司的应占利润同比下降3.4%,主要是净利润率下降2.6个百分点至9.0%所致。同时,小巴业务销量下降,加上由于研发、广告和人员成本的增加导致成本比率上升。
豪华板块在2019上半年保持相对强势,汽车销量在中国同比增长5.9%。渗透率较2018年上升3.0个百分点至2019上半年的14%。
华晨宝马正在为长期增长做准备。到2022年,预计年产能将增加490,000辆,且大东和铁西工厂都将为新的本地化车型如iX3、X5和电动5系列等做好准备。短期而言,我们预期X2跨界车和新一代3系列支持销售。
我们将2019年至2021年的股东利润分别下调9.3%/8.4%/8.5%。我们根据当前的销售速度调整销售量预测,并下调华晨宝马的利润率假设。
我们维持对华晨汽车的“中性”评级,下调目标价至7.84港元,相当于4.9倍2019年市盈率和4.2倍2020年市盈率。我们认为我们的估值是公平合理的,这大约是自2018年第4季度公布出售合资公司股权以来的平均值。我们认为利润率修复是估值重估的关键决定因素。
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