海底捞(6862.HK)寻找理想与现实之间的平衡点维持“减持”的评级
机构：国金证券
评级：减持
投资逻辑
1H19业绩符合预期，但仍有隐忧。海底捞1H19营收同比增长59.3%至116.9亿元，客流量（+51.8%YoY）和客单价（+4.1%YoY）表现符合预期。但受到开店综合成本上升以及新实施的IFRS16会计准则的影响，净利润同比增长40.9%至9.1亿元，慢于营收增速，也略低于市场预期。
海底捞在国内能开几家店？市场预期的海底捞国内3000家餐厅的规模意味着每年12亿人次的客流量，200亿元以上的资本支出和35万名员工的管理，理论上完全可以达到。但寻找海底捞火锅这个单品牌单业态的最优门店数，本质上是寻找一个理想和现实之间的平衡点，我们认为最终取决于餐饮行业的商业逻辑和公司所能接受的翻台率底限。?翻台率能否逐步企稳？1H19海底捞的整体翻台率为4.8次/天，新店和老店翻台率同比和环比均有下滑，结束了自2015年以来持续上升的趋势。原因在于爬坡期的新店数量大量增加以及老店受网点加密后的分流影响。我们认为，随着公司进入快速扩张期，未来翻台率仍将呈现下降趋势。
新会计准则的影响有多大？IFRS16租赁会计准则应用后，海底捞租赁的门店资产和相关费用需要重新分类计算。从结果来看，公司资产负债率大幅上升，租赁费用成本呈前高后低趋势，但自由现金流得到改善，提升公司DCF估值水平。
估值与投资建议
我们调整了海底捞未来三年开店节奏的预测并纳入IFRS16带来的影响，预测2019-21年EPS预测为人民币0.44/0.63/0.83元，调整幅度分别为-3%/+2%/+12%。相应地，我们调升基于DCF的目标价至港币25.52元，相当于2019/20/21年52x/36x/28xPE。我们维持公司“减持”的评级。
风险提示
1）食品安全控制不力影响品牌声誉；2）主要供应商为关联方企业；3）原材料价格大幅波动影响净利润。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
