《業績前瞻》券商料中行(03988.HK)上半年多賺4%留意淨息差及資產質素
中國銀行(03988.HK)將於本周五(30日)公布截至今年6月底止中期業績，由於資產收益率普遍下降，存款競爭激烈，淨息差料按季下跌、本網綜合5間券商預測，中行今年上半年純利料介乎1,127億至1,137.79億元人民幣，較2018年同期1,090.88億人民幣，按年增加3.3%至4.1%；中位數1,135.61億元人民幣，按年增加4.1%。
綜合4間券商預測，中行今年上半年淨利息收入料介乎1,797億至1,853.85億元人民幣，較2018年同期1,767.01億人民幣，按年增加1.7%至4.9%；中位數1,843.37億元人民幣，按年增加4.3%。投資者將關注中行的貸款質素及淨息差走勢。
【料業績平穩 留意三要點】
摩根大通估計中行上半年純利1,131.83億人民幣按年升4%(按半年增長59%)、料利息淨收入按年增4%至1,845.52億人民幣、料淨息差按年收窄5個基點至1.82%、非利息收入按年增長19%至891.76億人民幣。該行指投資者將關注中行業績三個要點，第一是資產質素、第二是淨息差走勢。第三是普惠金融業務表現。
摩根士丹利早前報告指，料中行淨息差將維持穩定，但有下行壓力，資產收益率亦將有下行空間，第二季融資成本則面臨上升壓力，縱使上升速度較首季緩和，其中中小企貸款收益率低於5%，新企業貸款收益率約為4.6%至4.7%，較首季度的零售貸款低約1厘。信貸需求則僅保持穩定而沒有改善。
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本網綜合5間券商預測，中行今年上半年純利料介乎1,127億至1,137.79億元人民幣，較2018年同期1,090.88億人民幣，按年增加3.3%至4.1%；中位數1,135.61億元人民幣，按年增加4.1%。
券商│今年上半年純利預測(人民幣)│按年變幅
瑞銀│1,137.79億元│+4.3%
招銀國際│1,136億元│+4.1%
花旗│1,135.61億元│+4.1%
摩根大通│1,131.83億元│+3.8%
建銀國際│1,127億元│+3.3%
按中行去年中期純利1,090.88億人民幣計算。
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綜合4間券商預測，中行今年上半年淨利息收入料介乎1,797億至1,853.85億元人民幣，較2018年同期1,767.01億人民幣，按年增加1.7%至4.9%；中位數1,843.37億元人民幣，按年增加4.3%。
券商│今年上半年淨利息收入預測(人民幣)│按年變幅
美銀美林│1,853.85億元│+4.9%
摩根大通│1,845.52億元│+4.4%
瑞銀│1,841.22億元│+4.2%
建銀國際│1,797億元│+1.7%
按中行去年中期淨利息收入1,767.01億人民幣計算。
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