华润置地(1109.HK)双轮驱动保证稳步增长
机构：国泰君安
华润置地(1109.HK)上半年综合营业额为人民币(单位下同)458.5亿元，同比增长4.7%；扣除投资物业评估增值后的核心股东应占溢利81.1亿元，同比增长11.3%；每股核心股东应占溢利1.17元，同比增长11.3%。中期股息每股0.129元，同比增加17.3%。
虽综合毛利率水平有所下降，但仍保持行业较高水平。2019年上半年，华润置地综合毛利率为38.2%，较去年同期48.1%有所下降，主要由于二线城市项目结算占比提高，结算结构变化所致。其中开发物业毛利率36%，回归正常；投资物业整体毛利率达67.6%。目前已售未结项目毛利预计在36%左右，仍处于行业领先的水平。
全年销售目标完成确定性高，业绩仍有保证。上半年华润置地签约销售额达 1,188亿元，同比增长26%。全年全口径可售货值达4,395亿元(下半年3,207亿元)，55%去化率即可完成全年2,420亿元的销售目标，同比增长15%；预计2020年仍能保持双位数增长。此外，华润置地已售未结签约额为人民币2,733.3亿元，其中预计2019年全年结算1,169.0亿元，业绩仍获支撑。
融资成本不断降低。截止2019年中期，华润置地加权融资成本较去年底下降2bps至4.45%；平均债务期限由去年底3.7年延长至4.7年；净负债比例为43.6%，虽较去年底33.9%有所上升，但仍处于行业较低的水平。财务依旧稳健，体现国企优势。
土储布局较为合理。目前华润置地总土地储备面积达6,737万平米，其中开发物业土地储备面积5,767万平米(一二线占比71%)，销售均价为18,982元/平米，满足未来三年发展需求。此外公司还拥有总规划建面约2,360万方核心旧改项目土储，其中55%位于深圳广州，预计于22年产生签约贡献。
投资物业租金收入稳步增长。上半年投资物业(包括酒店经营)租金收入为人民币57.0亿元，按年增长30.4%。预计19年租金收入增长可达30%以上(18年为95.2亿元)，20-21年同比增长可达10%以上。
估值上，彭博市场预计19/20年EPS为3.41/4.03元人民币，现价对应19/20年预测市盈率为8.68/7.35倍。近期市场预计每股NAV区间为42.5港元-49.7港元，NAV折让区间为10%-30%。彭博市场平均目标价为39.58港元，短期建议以36港元作为交易参考。
风险：商品房销售疲弱，经济下滑，调控加码等。
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