三生制药(1530.HK)业绩符合预期新医保目录受益
作者：安信国际分析师 李艾蔚
来源：安信国际
安信国际证券(香港)发布三生制药(1530.HK)研究报告：2019上半年收入/毛利/净利润分别增长21.6%/25.1%至26.4亿/21.8亿元人民币(下同)，归母净利润下降37.5%至3.2亿元，主要受3.4亿的一次性股权激励开支影响，经调整归母净利润增长34.1%至7.5亿元。毛利率上升2.4pp至82.7%，主要由于毛利率较高的产品占比提升。中期不派息。
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特比澳增速强劲，市场份额提升。核心产品情况如下：(1)治疗血小板减少的特比澳销售额增长42%，市场份额较18年提升7.2个点至72.5%；(2) 治疗类风湿关节炎、银屑病和强直的益赛普增长13.2%。单抗类产品治疗类风湿关节炎的患者渗透率仍然低至单个位数。公司将把益赛普销售队伍由400多人扩大到1000人左右，目标覆盖1万家医院，通过学术推广提升渗透率。此外，新医保目录新增重度斑块状银屑病适应症，有利益赛普未来增速提升；(3)促红素益比奥和赛博尔增长5.8%；(4)糖尿病产品中优泌林实现单个位数增长，而百泌达、百达扬基本持平。
研发投入继续加大。期内研发投入增加48.2%至2.6亿元。费用率10%。用于预防肾移植引起的急性排异反应的抗CD25单抗健尼哌获批上市，预计2020年贡献2000万左右收入；益赛普预充针递交上市申请并获得受理，预计20Q4获批，2021年初开始销售；治疗乳腺癌的赛妥珠单抗准备接受生产现场核查，预计明年上半年上市，销售队伍已在建设中；治疗中重度斑块状银屑病的重组人源化抗白介素-17A单抗获批开展临床试验；预计下半年有3个IND申请(PD-1、抗瘙痒药物TRK820、小分子促红素)，明年有5个左右IND申请。
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多款产品获纳入新版医保。2019年新版医保目录中，益赛普新增用于成人重度斑块状银屑病适应症；益比奥新增用于非骨髓恶性肿瘤化疗引起的贫血；优泌林由乙类升至甲类目录。公司将积极推进百泌达和百达扬通过谈判进入医保目录。随着医保受益患者群体增加和公司销售队伍持续扩张，我们认为核心产品销售增速有望提升。
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投资建议： 下半年公司潜在亮点颇多，包括赛妥珠单抗获批、PD-1等新药获批临床、百泌达百达扬进入医保目录。公司收入符合我们此前预期，而销管及研发费用略高于预期，故我们下调19-20年每股盈利预测至 0.48/0.67/0.80元 (经调整每股盈利0.59/0.67/0.80元)，18-21年CAGR 16.7%。目标价由19.84港元下调至18.7港元，对应20年25倍PE，买入评级。
风险提示：i) 研发进度不及预期；ii)销售不及预期；iii)同类产品竞争加剧。
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