瑞银降国寿(2628.HK)目标价至19.5港元评级“中性”
瑞银发表的研究报告指,中国人寿(02628.HK)上半年税後溢利按年升129%至379亿元人民币,新业务价值增长23%,毛利率升至27%,表现符合该行及市场预期。期内利润强劲主要受惠投资及一次性税务回拨,虽然新业务价值增长强劲,但该行认为公司在资产负债管理方面仍未赶上主要同业,而目前宏观环境不明朗,国寿亦面对更大的利率风险。该行对公司2019年税後溢利预测大致不变,但将2020-21年税後溢利预测分别降8%及11%,主要考虑利率环境及资本市场表现,目标价由21.4港元降至19.5港元,以反映盈利预测更新及人民币汇价转隆,重申“中性”评级。

该行指出国寿新业务价值增长表现较同业好,主要因为去年基数较低,毛利率由22.5%改善至27%,主要受惠产品组合改善,在个人及银行保险渠道方面利润均有改善。保险经纪数目按季微升2%,期内净利增长129%主要受惠税率下降。公司今早拿行分析员会议,该行估计投资者将较关注下半年产品组合转向,公司在招聘及培训上的策略,以及低息环境对国寿的潜在影响等。
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