一表了解券商對國壽(02628.HK)於業績後最新目標價及觀點(表)
中國人壽(02628.HK)今日早市升近4%，盤中曾高見18.98元，券商指其上半年新業務價值超預期，代理人指標表現強勁。該公司昨日(22日)收市後公布中期業績，總保費收入按年升4.9%至3,779.76億元人民幣(下同)，純利按年升128.9%至375.99億元，符合早前預告純利增長介乎115%至135%，每股盈利1.32元。不派息。
公司上半年新業務價值按年上升22.7%至345.69億元。上半年實現淨投資收益按年增加11.1%至720.3億元，淨投資收益率按年持平於4.66%。於6月底止，綜合償付能力充足率為269.09%，較去年年底上升18.53個百分點。
【增長符合盈喜預期】
截至6月國壽內含價值達8,868.04億元，較去年底增長11.5%；公司長險有效保單數量達2.97億份，較去年年底增長4.2%。保單持續率(14個月及26個月)分別為86.1%和87%，按年分別下跌6.2個百分點及上升0.2個百分點。於6月底止，綜合償付能力充足率為269.09%，較去年年底上升18.53個百分點。
券商中以摩根大通最為樂觀，該行認為，國壽有強勁轉勢潛力，從其產品組合、分銷渠道及資產負債表質量可見。該行指相對於強勁指標，認為國壽估值不合理地偏低，因其股價對內涵價值比率(P/EV)僅為0.5倍，接近低位。該行上調對中國人壽的目標價，由43港元上調至45港元，反映其強勁的新業務價值增長，維持「增持」評級。
中金表示，國壽中期新業務價值按年升23%，超過市場預期3%，內含價值較年初增長12%，超過市場預期3%，淨利潤按年大升1.29倍，指第二季末代理人數較首季末增長2%，同時賽伍質量提升，月均有銷售人力按年增長38%，遠超代理人總數增速，維持對其「跑贏行業」評級及目標價28港元。
本網最新綜合11間券商對其投資評級及目標價：
券商│投資評級│目標價(港元)
摩根大通│增持│43元-45元大和│買入│29元
中金│跑贏行業│28元
瑞信│跑贏大市│26元
華泰金控│買入│26元
花旗│買入│25.5元
高盛│買入│24.5元
野村│買入│24.01元
摩根士丹利│與大市同步│22元
匯豐環球研究│持有│21元
瑞銀│中性│21.40元-19.5元券商│觀點
摩根大通│業績勝預期為高質量，新業務價值率及現金流改善
大和│業績質與量均見改善
中金│新業務價值超預期，代理人指標表現強勁
瑞信│執行紀律及增長可持續性為價值重估關鍵
華泰金控│投資業績強勁及減稅支撐盈利上升
花旗│中期業績值得稱道，業務質量顯著改善
高盛│關注代理人質素
野村│增長強勁但利率風險上升
摩根士丹利│第二季業務增長動力顯著放緩
匯豐環球研究│業績及新業務價值勝預期
瑞銀│新業務價值符預期，純利增長受新稅例推動
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