《業績前瞻》券商料建行(00939.HK)中期純利按年增逾4%不良率屬關鍵
市場預期建設銀行(00939.HK)將於下周三(28日)公布今年中期業績。受政策指要內銀以低息來支持小微企業貸款，本網綜合6間券商預測，料建行今年上半年純利料介乎1,530.54億元至1,542億人民幣(下同)，較2018年中期1,470.27億元，按年增長4.1%至4.9%；中位數1,533.43億元，按年增4.3%。資產質素續仍為投資者最關心領域，留意其不良率走勢。
綜合3間券商預測，建行今年上半年利息淨收入料介乎2,491.8億元至2,576.86億元，較2018年同期2,394.86億元，按年增4%至7.6%。
【淨息差收窄 關注四要點】
摩根大通估計建行上半年純利可按年升4%至1,533.37億人民幣，估計利息淨收入增4%至2,491.8億人民幣，料淨息差按年收窄10個基點至2.24%，估計不良貸款比率1.47%，按年持平(按半年升1個基點)，撥備覆蓋率升至222%，估計成本收入比率23.5%，並料一級資本充足率14.07%。
該行表示，市場於建行業期中將聚焦四大因素，第一是資產質素，經過首季撥備覆蓋率持平，料第二季將按季升6個百分點，指不良貸款比率仍是市場關鍵；第二是淨息差，建行自2018年第四季淨息差按季收窄14個基點、於今年首季擴闊9個基點，投資者將關注其今年第二季淨息差趨勢，而該行料錄2.2%，按季收窄9個基點(按年收窄13個基點)；第三是普惠金融業務；第四是「債轉股」(Debt-Equity Swaps)。
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本網綜合6間券商預測，料建行今年上半年純利料介乎1,530.54億元至1,542億元，較2018年中期1,470.27億元，按年增長4.1%至4.9%；中位數1,533.43億元，按年增4.3%。
券商│今年上半年純利預測(人民幣)│按年變幅
瑞銀│1,542億元│+4.9%
招銀國際│1,536億元│+4.5%
花旗│1,533.49億元│+4.3%
摩根大通│1,533.37億元│+4.3%
野村│1,532億元│+4.2%
美銀美林│1,530.54億元│+4.1%
按建行2018年中期純利1,470.27億人民幣計算
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綜合3間券商預測，建行今年上半年利息淨收入料介乎2,491.8億元至2,576.86億元，較2018年同期2,394.86億元，按年增4%至7.6%。
券商│今年上半年利息淨收入預測(人民幣)│按年變幅
瑞銀│2,576.86億元│+7.6%
美銀美林│2,525.84億元│+5.5%
摩根大通│2,491.8億元│+4%
按建行對上年度利息淨收入2,394.86億人民幣計算
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