《業績前瞻》券商料農行(01288.HK)中期可多賺4%關注農村貸款資產質量
市場預期農業銀行(01288.HK)將於下周二(27日)公布中期業績，憧憬受惠人行定向降準釋放長期資金用於發放民營及小微企業貸款，本網綜合7間券商預測，料農業銀行今年上半年純利料介乎1,182.3億元至1,220億人民幣(下同)，較2018年同期1,159.76億元，按年上升1.9%至5.2%；中位數1,210億元，按年增4.3%。
綜合4間券商預測，料農業銀行今年上半年料淨利息收入介乎2,361億元至2,427.2億元，較2018年同期2,338.33億元，按年上升1%至3.8%；中位數2,387.5億元，按年升2.1%。但券商關注農行業績三項要點，包括資產質素、普惠金融業務表及農村貸款資產質量。
【聚焦三要點 不良率關鍵】
摩根大通估計，農行中期純利可按年多賺4.3%至1,208.17億元，料淨利息收入增2%至2,384.92億元、料淨息差錄2.18%按年收窄18個基點、估計非利息收入可按年升27%至939.45億元，料其上半年股本回報率錄14.2%，成本收入比率按年跌38個基點至32.4%，料其一級資本充足率錄11.78%，按年跌1個基點，料不良貸款比率按年跌1個基點至1.61%。
摩通表示，投資者對農行中期業績將聚焦三點，第一是資產質素，不良率能否回落、第二是普惠金融業務表現，第三是農村業務，塯意其相關業務資產質素及營運效率能否呈改善。
受惠人行定向降準釋放長期資金用於發放民營及小微企業貸款，中金早前發表報告表示，農行普惠小微貸款利率4.63%，考慮政策優惠後，預計為5.14%-5.48%。若未來不良率持平於目前的2.65%，基本可做到保本微利。
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本網綜合7間券商預測，料農業銀行今年上半年純利料介乎1,182.3億元至1,220億元，較2018年同期1,159.76億元，按年上升1.9%至5.2%；中位數1,210億元，按年增4.3%。
券商│今年上半年純利預測(人民幣)│按年變幅
瑞銀│1,220億元│+5.2%
建銀國際│1,211億元│+4.4%
建銀國際│1,210.05億元│+4.3%
招銀國際│1,210億元│+4.3%
野村│1,209.5億元│+4.3%
摩根大通│1,208.17億元│+4.3%
美銀美林│1,182.3億元│+1.9%
按農行2018年上半年純利1,159.76億人民幣推算
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綜合4間券商預測，料農業銀行今年上半年料淨利息收入介乎2,361億元至2,427.2億元，較2018年同期2,338.33億元，按年上升1%至3.8%；中位數2,387.5億元，按年升2.1%。
券商│今年上半年淨利息收入預測(人民幣)│按年變幅
瑞銀│2,427.2億元│+3.8%
美銀美林│2,390.13億元│+2.2%
摩根大通│2,384.92億元│+2%
建銀國際│2,361億元│+1%
按農行2018年上半年淨利息收入2,338.33億人民幣推算
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