中国建材(3323.HK)本轮周期大赢家区域影响力当刮目相看给予“买入”评级目标价10.5港元
机构：兴业证券
评级：买入
目标价：10.5 港元
投资要点
公司是建材领域的航空母舰，旗下拥有 7 家 A 股上市公司，水泥、新材料、工 程服务三足鼎立，水泥、商混、石膏板、玻纤、风电叶片和工程服务七项业务 居世界第一位。
水泥：公司通过联合重组迅速成长为巨无霸企业，以淮海为起点，连接南北 方，最后成功西进，最终实现全区域布局，产业布局已扩张至全国各大重要经 济区，于分散的行业在最短时间内发挥规模效益，占有资源，并最终控制市 场，这一模式是大部分过剩行业发展的必经之路。
公司第一步区域兼并重组已经完成，现处于第二步内部管理整合和第三步优化 升级阶段，如今各大区域影响力当刮目相看。若顺利携手山水和同力，中联于 鲁豫市场的地位将不亚于海螺之于沿江，南方绑定海螺并配合产能升级，两者 将合力主导长三角市场，论规模和盈利能力，中联和南方将有力支撑公司水泥 板块的核心利润，同时为水泥需求下平台淘汰中小企业做准备。
公司矿石储备丰富，业务布局广泛，构建水泥、骨料、混凝土、水泥窑协同处 置一体化纵向经营的全产业链有优势，对业绩贡献可观。
新材料：公司在石膏板、玻璃纤维和风电叶片等多项新材料领域均是业内典 范。继“水泥+”板块后，新材料是寻求二次转型的突破口。
我们的观点：在中性偏保守的假设下，测算公司价值超 805 亿人民币，现价低估 了 40%，从长期投资的角度已具备较大的价值。借助产能置换、拨备减值及降杠 杆，公司于盈利上行期积极“瘦身”，有较大利润修复空间， 0.67 倍 PB 被显著 低估。我们首次覆盖公司，预计 19-21 年归母净利润分别为 132 亿、153 亿和 156 亿元，同比增速分别为 64%、16%和 2%，“买入”评级，目标价 10.5 港元。
风险提示：经济恶化；协同破裂；原材料价格大幅波动；反倾销、贸易政 策等海外业务风险；集团内部整合不及预期。
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