丘钛科技(1478.HK)出货量高速增长毛利率大幅改善上调至“审慎增持”评级目标价7.7港元
机构：兴业证券
评级：审慎增持
目标价：7.7 港元
投资要点
2019 年上半年业绩：收入 50.6 亿元（人民币，下同），同比增长 58%， 其中摄像模组收入 39.2 亿元，同比增长 52%，指纹模组收入 11.2 亿元， 同比增长 81%。归母净利润 1.8 亿元，同比扭亏（去年上半年亏损 5129 万元）。毛利率 8.2%，同比改善 7 个百分点，净利润率 3.7%，同比改善 5.2 个百分点。
摄像模组毛利率继续改善，全年出货量增速指引上修至 50%。公司上半 年摄像模组出货 1.6 亿颗，同比增长 78%；ASP 约 21.5 元，同比下滑 6.3%； 毛利率达 7.6%，同比提高 4.3 个百分点，环比提高 1.5 个百分点。上半年 期末产能为 42KK/月，预计到年末提高到 50KK/月。
屏下式拉动指纹模组 ASP，毛利率大幅改善，继续发挥与新钜科技的垂 直整合优势。公司上半年屏下式指纹模组出货量占比约达 51%， ASP 同 比提高 53%到 29.7 元；毛利率为 10.1%，环比提高 3.2 个百分点，为历史 最佳水平。丘钛和联营公司新钜科技在 3D 镜头、屏下指纹镜头进行了深 度的资源和客户整合。未来，丘钛会参与新钜科技的现金增资，支持其建 厂扩产，并在 RGB 镜头开展更多的合作。
将受益于华为份额提升与 5G 换机潮的拉动效应。5G 初期对中高端手机 的换机需求刺激最为明显，而中高端手机对拍照的要求，将对摄像模组行 业起到正面的拉动。我们预计，2020 年 5G 相关芯片在 2020 年可望出货 2 亿颗以上，加速移动终端的 5G 支持能力，也带动公司高端产品出货。 此外，我们推测，丘钛科技目前在华为的高端项目份额有所提高，未来或 有机会拓展潜望式模组、亿级像素、四摄等技术到更多机型。
投资建议：我们预计公司 2019/20/21 年收入为 110/129/141 亿元，同比增 长 35%/18%/9%，归母净利润 4.0/5.1/5.7 亿元，同比增长 2696%/27%/11%。 我们认为公司的业绩以及走出困境，持续投入产品研发和生产的自动化， 增强了公司的竞争力，保证了公司的长期成长性。我们按 2020 年 15 倍 PE 上调目标价 51%至 7.7 港元，上调至“审慎增持”评级。
风险提示：手机行业与大客户出货低迷、宏观环境不确定性、产品价格竞争
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