李宁(2331.HK)崛起-繁荣-困境-反转涅槃重生的中国品牌首次覆盖给予“买入”评级
机构：国金证券
评级：买入
基本结论
历经崛起-繁荣-困境-复苏，涅槃重生：公司因抓住中国运动市场高速发展的β红利而崛起，迅速扩张经销体系和加持顶级体育资源而繁荣，2010年在战略冒进和原有成长路径依赖下遭遇困境。2011-2014年进入调整期并迅速实施变革，产品端聚焦主品牌、专注五大核心运动品类，渠道端由传统批发转为零售效率导向，供应链端实施指导性订货+快反的组合模式。2015年以来业绩转正持续复苏，1H2019实现收入62.5亿元，同比+33%；扣非净利润5.61亿元，同比+109%，体现出极强的α能力和长期龙头潜质。
运动鞋服行业具备诞生大公司的土壤，更懂国潮消费文化的品牌有望崛起：2018年我国运动鞋服规模2648亿元，在运动参与率和人均运动鞋服支出推动下，未来5年复合增速有望保持在10.4%。行业具有强功能科技、强营销资源、强品牌认知三重壁垒，龙头有望强者恒强。我们认为，运动与文化息息相关，文化具有本土特征，未来更懂国潮消费文化、渠道深入各线城市、对电商接受程度高、设计快反能力强的本土大型品牌有望获取更大份额。
展望未来，核心品牌李宁已在品牌认知&功能科技&营销资源&渠道运营方面积累充分势能，零售流水持续复苏值得期待：目前主品牌李宁围绕专业运动，已在篮球、跑步、训练等核心品类打造出具有强认知度的明星产品，具有储备丰富的功能性产品科技和国内顶尖的体育营销资源。未来3年，在每年线下净增100-200家门店，渠道优化店效提升10%-20%，线上20%-30%增长的共同推动下，零售流水及销售收入有望持续复苏。
新业务方面，中国李宁引爆国潮，李宁Young开辟运动童装新领地，提供增量收入：①中国李宁成为引爆“国潮”的运动时尚爆款，月店效可达100万元，2019年底目标拓展至100-120家门店，有望向长青运动时尚潮牌发展。②李宁YOUNG主打运动童装，于2017重塑推出，2018收入占比已超2%。截至1H2019共有门店数872家，预计19年底拓展至1100-1200家门店，收入占比提升至4%，长期有望向国内一流的运动童装发展。
投资建议：本土运动鞋服第二大集团，困境反转，净利率有望持续提升。预计2019扣非净利润为11.28亿元，同比+57.8%，2019-2021摊薄后EPS为0.58、0.65、0.78元。参考可比公司估值，并考虑到公司体现出的高增长弹性，给予19年35倍市盈率，目标价23港币，首次覆盖给予买入评级。
风险提示：终端消费疲软、新业务发展不及预期、管理团队变化
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